Deportes Limache
vs
A. Italiano
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportes Limache
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.99.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportes Limache is the favourite, not a value bet.
Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano
| Probability | Deportes Limache | Draw | A. Italiano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.6% | 28.6% | 23.8% |
| Market | 44.9% | 25.7% | 29.3% |
| Final | 45.6% | 26.4% | 28.0% |
| Edge | +0.7% | +0.7% | -1.4% |
Why Deportes Limache
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.9% per unit staked (our 45.6% × 2.13 − 1).
Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano match preview
Deportes Limache will face A. Italiano in the Chile Primera División, with the match set for November 2, 2026. According to our model, Deportes Limache has a 44% probability of winning, while A. Italiano holds a 29% chance, and a draw is estimated at 27%. The expected goals for Deportes Limache are 1.56, compared to A. Italiano's 0.97. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 11% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Deportes Limache has recorded a W-D-L-W-W-L streak, while A. Italiano has a D-W-W-L-D-D record. The last three encounters between these teams show a balanced competition, with Deportes Limache winning once, A. Italiano also securing one win, and one match ending in a draw. Both teams have a 50% chance of scoring in this upcoming fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportes Limache and A. Italiano expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
Deportes Limache and A. Italiano attack and defence ratings
Deportes Limache
A. Italiano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportes Limache | 45.6% | 2.19 | +0.7% | 2.13 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.1% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportes Limache | 45.6% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| A. Italiano | 28.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.9% |
| No | 50.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportes Limache win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 52.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 0-0 | 9.6% |
Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano stats
Deportes Limache and A. Italiano recent form
| Deportes Limache |
WDLWWL |
| A. Italiano |
DDWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportes Limache and A. Italiano season so far
Deportes Limache record
- They have won 10 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
A. Italiano record
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | A. Italiano | Deportes Limache | Chile Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-11 | Deportes Limache | A. Italiano | Chile Primera División | 4-0 |
| 2025-03-08 | A. Italiano | Deportes Limache | Chile Primera División | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.9%, draw 25.7%, away 29.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.60 | 3.11 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.65 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.13 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.58 | 3.14 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.81 | 3.21 |
| SBO | 1.97 | 3.29 | 2.94 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .