O'Higgins
vs
Nublense
Garuda Lions Prediction: O'Higgins
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.10.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — O'Higgins is the favourite, not a value bet.
O'Higgins vs Nublense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: O'Higgins vs Nublense
| Probability | O'Higgins | Draw | Nublense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.8% | 26.4% | 23.8% |
| Market | 46.4% | 28.4% | 25.2% |
| Final | 47.2% | 27.9% | 24.8% |
| Edge | +0.8% | -0.5% | -0.4% |
Why O'Higgins
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.10.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (our 47.2% × 2.05 − 1).
O'Higgins vs Nublense match preview
O'Higgins enters this match with a probability of 54% to win against Nublense, who has a 21% chance of victory. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of O'Higgins, with an expected goals tally of 1.77 for O'Higgins compared to 1.02 for Nublense. Both teams have a 54% probability of scoring, and there is a 53% chance that the match will feature over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows O'Higgins with mixed results, recording a draw and two losses in their last five matches, while Nublense has struggled significantly, losing four of their last five games. In their last three encounters, O'Higgins has won all matches against Nublense, indicating a strong historical advantage. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
O'Higgins and Nublense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
O'Higgins and Nublense attack and defence ratings
O'Higgins
Nublense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
O'Higgins vs Nublense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | O'Higgins | 47.2% | 2.12 | +0.8% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | O'Higgins | 47.2% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Nublense | 24.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% |
| No | 44.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | O'Higgins win | 27.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 50.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 9.2% |
O'Higgins vs Nublense stats
O'Higgins and Nublense recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
O'Higgins and Nublense season so far
O'Higgins record
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 24 matches.
Nublense record
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
O'Higgins vs Nublense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Nublense | O'Higgins | Chile Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-08 | O'Higgins | Nublense | Chile Primera División | 4-2 |
| 2025-05-25 | Nublense | O'Higgins | Chile Primera División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
O'Higgins vs Nublense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.4%, draw 28.4%, away 25.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.20 | 3.72 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 3.35 | 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.02 | 3.30 | 3.88 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .