Coquimbo Unido
vs
Union La Calera
Garuda Lions Prediction: Coquimbo Unido
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.10.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Coquimbo Unido is the favourite, not a value bet.
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera
| Probability | Coquimbo Unido | Draw | Union La Calera |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.9% | 26.4% | 23.7% |
| Market | 56.9% | 24.5% | 18.6% |
| Final | 55.2% | 25.0% | 19.8% |
| Edge | -1.7% | +0.5% | +1.3% |
Why Coquimbo Unido
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.10.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (our 55.2% × 1.70 − 1).
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera match preview
Coquimbo Unido enters this match with a 55% probability of winning, while Union La Calera has a 20% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Coquimbo Unido, with an expected goals tally of 1.69 for them compared to 1.10 for Union La Calera. Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 56% for this outcome.
In terms of recent form, Coquimbo Unido has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and four losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Union La Calera has shown slightly better consistency, with two wins, two draws, and two losses in the same timeframe. Historically, Coquimbo Unido has dominated their recent encounters, winning all three of their last meetings against Union La Calera.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera attack and defence ratings
Coquimbo Unido
Union La Calera
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coquimbo Unido | 55.2% | 1.81 | -1.7% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coquimbo Unido | 55.2% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Union La Calera | 19.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% |
| No | 44.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Coquimbo Unido win | 27.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 50.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 9.2% |
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera stats
Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera recent form
| Coquimbo Unido |
LWLLWL |
| Union La Calera |
WDWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera season so far
Coquimbo Unido record
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
Union La Calera record
- They have won 4 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Union La Calera | Coquimbo Unido | Chile Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Coquimbo Unido | Union La Calera | Chile Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-17 | Union La Calera | Coquimbo Unido | Chile Primera División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.9%, draw 24.5%, away 18.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 3.70 | 4.97 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.95 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.78 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.63 | 3.90 | 5.18 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.50 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .