Nublense
vs
Coquimbo Unido
Garuda Lions Prediction: Coquimbo Unido
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.49.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido
| Probability | Nublense | Draw | Coquimbo Unido |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.9% | 23.9% | 47.2% |
| Market | 32.5% | 29.1% | 38.4% |
| Final | 31.6% | 27.8% | 40.6% |
| Edge | -0.9% | -1.3% | +2.2% |
Why Coquimbo Unido
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.49.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Coquimbo Unido below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.4% per unit staked (our 40.6% × 2.50 − 1).
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido match preview
Nublense faces Coquimbo Unido in a Chile Primera División matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 25, 2026. The probabilities indicate a competitive contest, with Coquimbo Unido at 40%, Nublense at 32%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, as the model shows a 67% chance for both teams to score and a 66% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
Recent form suggests challenges for Nublense, who have lost five of their last six matches, while Coquimbo Unido has experienced a mix of results, winning two of their last six. The expected goals for Nublense stand at 1.49, while Coquimbo Unido is projected to score 1.93, indicating a slight edge for the visitors in offensive potential.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nublense and Coquimbo Unido expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.42
Nublense and Coquimbo Unido attack and defence ratings
Nublense
Coquimbo Unido
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coquimbo Unido | 40.6% | 2.47 | +2.2% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nublense | 31.6% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Coquimbo Unido | 40.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% |
| No | 32.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Coquimbo Unido win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 52.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 7.0% |
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido stats
Nublense and Coquimbo Unido recent form
| Nublense |
LLLLLW |
| Coquimbo Unido |
WLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nublense and Coquimbo Unido season so far
Nublense record
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coquimbo Unido record
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Coquimbo Unido | Nublense | Chile Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-12 | Coquimbo Unido | Nublense | Chile Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-21 | Nublense | Coquimbo Unido | Chile Primera División | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.5%, draw 29.1%, away 38.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.81 | 3.10 | 2.37 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.92 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.25 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.83 | 3.16 | 2.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.89 | 3.24 | 2.50 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.02 | 2.26 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .