Universidad de Chile
vs
Nublense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Universidad de Chile
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Universidad de Chile vs Nublense
| Probability | Universidad de Chile | Draw | Nublense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73.4% | 17.0% | 9.6% |
| Market | 61.9% | 22.9% | 15.3% |
| Final | 64.7% | 21.4% | 13.8% |
| Edge | +11.5% | -5.9% | -5.6% |
Why Universidad de Chile
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Universidad de Chile below the model: +11.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense match preview
Universidad de Chile enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 65%, while Nublense stands at 14%. The expected goals for Universidad de Chile is 2.56, compared to 0.86 for Nublense, indicating a significant offensive advantage. Recent form shows Universidad de Chile with three wins in their last six matches, while Nublense has struggled, winning only two of their last six.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-0 in favor of Universidad de Chile, occurring with an 11% probability. Additionally, there is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams scoring is forecasted at 54%. The head-to-head record in their last three encounters is balanced, with each team securing one win and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Universidad de Chile and Nublense expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.42
Universidad de Chile and Nublense attack and defence ratings
Universidad de Chile
Nublense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad de Chile | 64.7% | 1.54 | +11.5% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.2% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Universidad de Chile win | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad de Chile | 64.7% |
| Draw | 21.4% | |
| Nublense | 13.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% |
| No | 46.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universidad de Chile win | 52.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 26.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 3-0 | 9.2% |
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense stats
Universidad de Chile and Nublense recent form
| Universidad de Chile |
WWLLWW |
| Nublense |
LLLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Universidad de Chile and Nublense season so far
Universidad de Chile record
- They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Nublense record
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Nublense | Universidad de Chile | Chile Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-20 | Nublense | Universidad de Chile | Chile Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-15 | Universidad de Chile | Nublense | Chile Primera División | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.9%, draw 22.9%, away 15.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 3.85 | 6.54 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.20 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.53 | 4.30 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 3.98 | 6.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.30 | 5.97 |
| SBO | 1.46 | 3.70 | 5.22 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.80 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .