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Chile Primera División · Full time ·Matchday 24

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense

6 – 0 Full time

13′Maximiliano Guerrero
18′Tobías Reinhart
37′Maximiliano Guerrero
45′Pablo Calderón
45′Matías PlazaCarlos Salomón
45′Ignacio JeraldinoLucas Molina Canto
55′Agustín Arce
57′Ignacio VásquezGonzalo Ezequiel Reyna
57′Nicolás RamírezFabián Hormazabal
62′Esteban CalderónFernando Ovelar
62′Robinson Manuel Rivera ZúñigaDiego Céspedes
72′Gabriel GracianiFranco Rami
73′Gonzalo Ezequiel Reyna
75′Eduardo Vargas
77′Tobías ReinhartIsrael Poblete
77′Maximiliano GuerreroJuan Martin Lucero
77′Charles AránguizMarcelo Díaz
86′Fabián Hormazabal

Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, SantiagoReferee: Cristian Garay

Universidad de Chile 65%
Draw 21%
Nublense 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 7
10 Shots on target 4
71 Possession % 29
7 Corners 3
8 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 3
4 Saves 4
643 Accurate passes 201

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Universidad de Chile vs Nublense

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUniversidad de ChileDrawNublense
Model73.4%17.0%9.6%
Market61.7%22.9%15.4%
Final64.6%21.4%14.0%
Edge+2.9%-1.5%-1.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Universidad de Chile

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 0.85.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Universidad de Chile below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Universidad de ↓ / Nublense → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 8% 2 11% 9% 3 9% 8% 4+ 11% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Universidad de Chile and Nublense expected goals

Universidad de Chile 2.55
Nublense 0.85

Total expected goals: 3.41

Universidad de Chile and Nublense attack and defence ratings

Universidad de Chile

Attack 1.35 +35%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Nublense

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense: result vs prediction

Universidad de Chile 6 – 0 Nublense

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Chile Primera División

Before and after this match

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Universidad de Chile 64.6% 1.55 +2.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.2% 1.51 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.7% 1.86 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.0% 1.16 — —
Handicap -1 Universidad de Chile win 52.4% 1.91 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Universidad de Chile64.6%
Draw21.4%
Nublense14.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.2%
Under 2.533.8%
Both teams to scoreYes53.7%
No46.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.0%
12 (either side)78.6%
X2 (draw or away)35.4%
Handicap -1Universidad de Chile win52.4%
Push (exactly one goal)21.0%
Loss26.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-010.8%
2-19.2%
3-09.2%

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense stats

Universidad de Chile and Nublense recent form

newest first
Universidad de Chile WWLLWW
Nublense LLLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Universidad de Chile and Nublense going into this match

league record before kick-off

Universidad de Chile record

  • They have won 12 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Nublense record

  • They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Universidad de Chile wins 3Draws 3Nublense wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-12NublenseUniversidad de ChileChile Primera División1-0
2025-07-20NublenseUniversidad de ChileChile Primera División2-2
2025-02-15Universidad de ChileNublenseChile Primera División5-0
2024-11-20Universidad de ChileNublenseCopa Chile1-0
2024-11-03NublenseUniversidad de ChilePrimera División1-4
2024-05-26Universidad de ChileNublensePrimera División0-0
2023-12-09Universidad de ChileNublensePrimera División3-1
2023-05-20NublenseUniversidad de ChilePrimera División1-1
2022-07-17Universidad de ChileNublensePrimera División0-1
2022-02-21NublenseUniversidad de ChilePrimera División3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 61.7%, draw 22.9%, away 15.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.46 4.00 5.94
Bet365 1.50 4.00 6.00
BetVictor 1.50 4.20 6.00
Betano 1.57 4.55 6.10
Betfair 1.44 4.00 5.50
Dafabet 1.52 4.40 6.00
Marathonbet 1.48 4.10 6.00
Pinnacle 1.53 4.43 6.08
SBO 1.44 3.76 5.32
William Hill 1.50 3.90 5.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.50 ▼ -0.05
X 4.05 ▲ +0.05
2 6.00 ▲ +0.45

16 snapshots recorded, from .