Concepción
vs
Union La Calera
Garuda Lions Prediction: Concepción
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
Concepción vs Union La Calera overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Concepción vs Union La Calera
| Probability | Concepción | Draw | Union La Calera |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.0% | 27.0% | 11.0% |
| Market | 46.1% | 28.7% | 25.3% |
| Final | 50.1% | 28.2% | 21.7% |
| Edge | +15.9% | -1.7% | -14.3% |
Why Concepción
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.51.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Concepción below the model: +15.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Concepción vs Union La Calera match preview
Concepción is set to face Union La Calera in the Chile Primera División, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 50% probability of a Concepción victory, while a draw stands at 28% and Union La Calera at 22%. The expected goals suggest a strong offensive potential for Concepción at 1.55, compared to Union La Calera's 0.51. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Concepción, with a 19% probability.
In terms of recent form, Concepción has recorded a series of results with two wins, two draws, and one loss, while Union La Calera has struggled, managing only one win in their last six matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 34%, and both teams to score stands at 33%. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Concepción and Union La Calera expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.06
Concepción and Union La Calera attack and defence ratings
Concepción
Union La Calera
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Concepción vs Union La Calera markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Concepción | 50.1% | 2.00 | +15.9% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.0% | 2.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Concepción | 50.1% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Union La Calera | 21.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.6% |
| No | 67.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Concepción win | 34.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.6% | |
| Loss | 38.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.7% |
| 2-0 | 15.3% | |
| 0-0 | 13.7% |
Concepción vs Union La Calera stats
Concepción and Union La Calera recent form
| Concepción |
DLWDWW |
| Union La Calera |
WLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Concepción and Union La Calera season so far
Concepción record
- They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
Union La Calera record
- They have won 5 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Concepción vs Union La Calera head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | Union La Calera | Concepción | Chile Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Concepción vs Union La Calera odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.1%, draw 28.7%, away 25.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.20 | 3.73 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.35 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.20 | 3.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 3.30 | 3.91 |
| SBO | 2.02 | 2.91 | 3.22 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .