Chile Primera División · 2026-10-11T20:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 24

Concepción vs Union La Calera

1 – 1 Full time

11′			juan salomoni
21′			Cristian Riquelme
28′			Mario Sandoval
28′			Daniel Gutiérrez
45′			Martín Hiriart EspinozaMaximiliano Fernández
50′			Ethan Espinoza
66′			Jorge HenríquezDiego Acosta
66′			Cristian RiquelmeMisael Dávila
68′			Brian Nicolás FerreyraMatías Campos López
68′			Joan CruzBayron Oyarzo
74′			Rodrigo Perez Casada
80′			Rodrigo Perez CasadaJoaquín Soto
84′			Mario SandovalFernando Martinez
89′			Camilo MoyaYerko Leiva
90′			Ethan EspinozaMatías Cavalleri
90′			Joaquín LarriveyCarlos Escobar
90′			Ariel Cáceres
90′			Christopher Díaz

Estadio Municipal Ester Roa Concepcion, ConcepcionReferee: Hector Jona

Concepción

51%

Draw

28%

Union La Calera

21%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

17	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
47	Possession %	53
4	Corners	4
11	Fouls	13
2	Offsides	2
2	Saves	5
282	Accurate passes	311

Concepción vs Union La Calera overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Concepción vs Union La Calera

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Concepción	Draw	Union La Calera
Model	62.1%	26.9%	10.9%
Market	46.7%	28.3%	25.0%
Final	50.6%	28.0%	21.5%
Edge	+3.9%	-0.3%	-3.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Concepción

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.51.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Concepción below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

86%

2+ goals

62%

3+ goals

34%

No goals

14%

Concepción and Union La Calera expected goals

Concepción

1.55

Union La Calera

0.51

Total expected goals: 2.06

Concepción and Union La Calera attack and defence ratings

Concepción

Attack

0.97 -3%

Defence

0.66 -34%

Union La Calera

Attack

0.67 -33%

Defence

1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Concepción vs Union La Calera: result vs prediction

Concepción 1 – 1 Union La Calera

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Chile Primera División

Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Huachipato vs O'Higgins · 2026-10-10
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo · 2026-10-11
Deportes Limache vs Palestino — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
Universidad de Chile v Nublense — match page · 2026-10-12
U. Catolica v A. Italiano — match page · 2026-10-28

Before and after this match

Concepción, previous: Colo Colo – Concepción, 2026-09-13
Concepción, next: D. La Serena – Concepción, 2026-10-24
Union La Calera, previous: Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache: odds and pick
Union La Calera, next: Union La Calera v U. Catolica analysis

Concepción vs Union La Calera markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Concepción	50.6%	1.98	+3.9%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	65.9%	1.52	—	—
Both teams to score	No	67.4%	1.48	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	78.5%	1.27	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	37.9%	2.64	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Concepción	50.6%
	Draw	28.0%
	Union La Calera	21.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	34.1%
	Under 2.5	65.9%
Both teams to score	Yes	32.6%
	No	67.4%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	78.5%
	12 (either side)	72.0%
	X2 (draw or away)	49.4%
Handicap -1	Concepción win	34.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	27.7%
	Loss	37.9%
Correct score (top 3)	1-0	18.7%
	2-0	15.3%
	0-0	13.7%

Concepción vs Union La Calera stats

Concepción and Union La Calera recent form

newest first

Concepción	DLWDWW
Union La Calera	WLLDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Concepción and Union La Calera going into this match

league record before kick-off

Concepción record

They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).

Union La Calera record

They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Concepción vs Union La Calera head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Concepción wins 0Draws 1Union La Calera wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-14	Union La Calera	Concepción	Chile Primera División	1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Concepción vs Union La Calera odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 28.3%, away 25.0%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.90	3.25	3.82
Bet365	2.00	3.40	3.60
BetVictor	1.95	3.30	3.90
Betano	2.05	3.35	3.80
Betfair	1.91	3.25	3.60
Dafabet	2.02	3.40	3.80
Marathonbet	2.01	3.20	3.62
Pinnacle	2.00	3.43	4.04
SBO	1.97	3.04	3.44
William Hill	1.95	3.10	3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.98 ▼ -0.04

X 3.27 ▲ +0.07

2 3.71 ▲ +0.09

32 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-26T08:10:01Z.