Everton de Vina
vs
D. La Serena
Garuda Lions Prediction: Everton de Vina
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena
| Probability | Everton de Vina | Draw | D. La Serena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.4% | 18.0% | 13.6% |
| Market | 53.3% | 24.4% | 22.3% |
| Final | 57.1% | 22.8% | 20.1% |
| Edge | +15.1% | -6.4% | -8.7% |
Why Everton de Vina
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Everton de Vina below the model: +15.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena match preview
Everton de Vina enters this match with a probability of 57% to win, reflecting their recent form of three wins in their last five matches, alongside one draw and one loss. They have an expected goals figure of 2.60, suggesting a strong offensive capability, and the most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Everton, with a 9% probability. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 72%, and both teams scoring stands at 63%.
In contrast, D. La Serena has a 20% chance of winning, having recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Their expected goals are significantly lower at 1.12, indicating potential struggles in attack. Historically, Everton de Vina has won once in their last three encounters, while D. La Serena has secured two victories. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C, based on blended probabilities with market odds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Everton de Vina and D. La Serena expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.73
Everton de Vina and D. La Serena attack and defence ratings
Everton de Vina
D. La Serena
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton de Vina | 57.1% | 1.75 | +15.1% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Everton de Vina win | 48.0% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton de Vina | 57.1% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| D. La Serena | 20.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% |
| No | 36.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Everton de Vina win | 48.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 31.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.2% | |
| 3-1 | 8.0% |
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena stats
Everton de Vina and D. La Serena recent form
| Everton de Vina |
WLWWDW |
| D. La Serena |
LWWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Everton de Vina and D. La Serena season so far
Everton de Vina record
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
D. La Serena record
- They have won 7 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | D. La Serena | Everton de Vina | Chile Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Everton de Vina | D. La Serena | Chile Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-13 | D. La Serena | Everton de Vina | Chile Primera División | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.3%, draw 24.4%, away 22.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.85 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.77 | 3.89 | 4.22 |
| SBO | 1.67 | 3.48 | 3.82 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .