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Chile Primera División · Full time ·Matchday 24

Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena

3 – 2 Full time

10′Felipe Chamorro
14′Felipe Chamorro
28′Julian Alfaro
32′Felipe Alejandro Gutiérrez Leiva
33′Nicolás Baeza
37′F. Dinamarca
47′Lucas Alarcon
54′Felipe ChamorroGonzalo Escalante
56′Matías Marín
63′Bruno Gutierrez
66′Jeisson VargasDiego Rubio
69′Cristian PalaciosJosué Miguel Nehemías Ovalle Aranda
69′Emiliano RamosBraian Aaron Martínez
78′Braian Aaron Martínez
81′Nicolás BaezaVicente Fernández
82′G. FigueroaAlexander Oroz
82′Matías MarínSebastián Díaz
83′Lucas Soto
86′Valentin VidalGustavo Charrupi
86′Lucas SotoÓscar Opazo
89′Alan Medina
90′Franco ian rasso
90′Ignacio González
90′Bruno Gutierrez

Sausalito, Vina del MarReferee: Reinerio Alvarado

Everton de Vina 58%
Draw 23%
D. La Serena 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 6
60 Possession % 40
8 Corners 1
13 Fouls 19
2 Offsides 1
4 Saves 2
348 Accurate passes 212

Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityEverton de VinaDrawD. La Serena
Model68.5%18.0%13.5%
Market54.9%24.2%20.9%
Final58.3%22.7%19.1%
Edge+3.4%-1.6%-1.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Everton de Vina

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Everton de Vina below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Everton de Vin ↓ / D. La Serena → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 8% 2 8% 9% 5% 3 7% 8% 4+ 9% 10% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Everton de Vina and D. La Serena expected goals

Everton de Vina 2.60
D. La Serena 1.12

Total expected goals: 3.73

Everton de Vina and D. La Serena attack and defence ratings

Everton de Vina

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 0.87 -13%

D. La Serena

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 1.21 +21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena: result vs prediction

Everton de Vina 3 – 2 D. La Serena

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Chile Primera División

Before and after this match

Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Everton de Vina 58.3% 1.72 +3.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.0% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.2% 1.58 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.9% 1.24 — —
Handicap -1 Everton de Vina win 48.0% 2.08 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Everton de Vina58.3%
Draw22.7%
D. La Serena19.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.0%
Under 2.528.0%
Both teams to scoreYes63.2%
No36.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.9%
12 (either side)77.3%
X2 (draw or away)41.7%
Handicap -1Everton de Vina win48.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss31.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.2%
2-08.2%
3-18.0%

Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena stats

Everton de Vina and D. La Serena recent form

newest first
Everton de Vina WLWWDW
D. La Serena LWWDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Everton de Vina and D. La Serena going into this match

league record before kick-off

Everton de Vina record

  • They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

D. La Serena record

  • They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.

Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4Everton de Vina wins 2Draws 3D. La Serena wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-11D. La SerenaEverton de VinaChile Primera División1-0
2025-08-28Everton de VinaD. La SerenaChile Primera División3-1
2025-04-13D. La SerenaEverton de VinaChile Primera División2-1
2022-08-27Everton de VinaD. La SerenaPrimera División4-0
2022-04-01D. La SerenaEverton de VinaPrimera División1-3
2021-09-28D. La SerenaEverton de VinaPrimera División0-2
2021-05-01Everton de VinaD. La SerenaPrimera División0-4
2021-01-06D. La SerenaEverton de VinaPrimera División1-1
2020-03-14Everton de VinaD. La SerenaPrimera División0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.9%, draw 24.2%, away 20.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.62 3.80 4.48
Bet365 1.70 3.70 4.50
BetVictor 1.70 3.90 4.40
Betano 1.78 4.05 4.70
Betfair 1.62 3.80 4.40
Dafabet 1.76 3.90 4.40
Marathonbet 1.67 3.84 4.45
Pinnacle 1.71 4.10 4.68
SBO 1.67 3.50 3.79
William Hill 1.67 3.60 4.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.69 ▼ -0.04
X 3.82 ▲ +0.03
2 4.43 ▲ +0.24

31 snapshots recorded, from .