Chile Primera División · 2026-10-10T18:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 24

Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion

1 – 1 Full time

41′			Juan Fuentes
44′			Cesar Yanis
45′			Martín EspinozaFranco Frias
45′			T. RocoIam Gonzalez
54′			Matias Alejandro Olguín LuceroAlejandro Santander
62′			Rodrigo Francisco Sandoval Muñoz
68′			Leroy Janpol Morales NapaAaron Astudillo
76′			Facundo MaterLuis Rojas
77′			Cecilio WatermanRogelio Funes
79′			Yerco OyanedelAntonio Diaz
80′			Bryan Ogaz
88′			Luis Rojas
90′			Aaron Astudillo
90′			Luis Rojas
90′			Harol Salgadodiego sabando
90′			Guillermo Pacheco

Estadio El Cobre, El SalvadorReferee: Gaston Philippe

Cobresal

51%

Draw

25%

Universidad de Concepcion

24%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

23	Shots	16
8	Shots on target	3
47	Possession %	53
10	Corners	5
8	Fouls	8
1	Offsides	2
2	Saves	7
294	Accurate passes	332

Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Cobresal	Draw	Universidad de Concepcion
Model	62.8%	22.6%	14.6%
Market	46.4%	25.8%	27.8%
Final	50.5%	25.0%	24.5%
Edge	+4.1%	-0.8%	-3.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Cobresal

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.88.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Cobresal below our published probability: +4.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

93%

2+ goals

79%

3+ goals

55%

No goals

Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion expected goals

Cobresal

2.01

Universidad de Concepcion

0.88

Total expected goals: 2.90

Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion attack and defence ratings

Cobresal

Attack

1.07 +7%

Defence

1.29 +29%

Universidad de Concepcion

Attack

0.59 -41%

Defence

1.20 +20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion: result vs prediction

Cobresal 1 – 1 Universidad de Concepcion

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Chile Primera División

Huachipato vs O'Higgins · 2026-10-10
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo · 2026-10-11
Concepción v Union La Calera — match page · 2026-10-11
Deportes Limache vs Palestino — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
Universidad de Chile v Nublense — match page · 2026-10-12
U. Catolica v A. Italiano — match page · 2026-10-28

Before and after this match

Cobresal, previous: Cobresal – Coquimbo Unido, 2026-09-12
Cobresal, next: O'Higgins vs Cobresal: odds and pick
Universidad de Concepcion, previous: Universidad de Concepcion vs Huachipato: odds and pick
Universidad de Concepcion, next: Universidad de Concepcion – Deportes Limache, 2026-10-25

Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Cobresal	50.5%	1.98	+4.1%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	55.4%	1.81	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	51.8%	1.93	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	75.5%	1.32	—	—
Handicap -1	Cobresal win	39.3%	2.54	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Cobresal	50.5%
	Draw	25.0%
	Universidad de Concepcion	24.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	55.4%
	Under 2.5	44.6%
Both teams to score	Yes	51.8%
	No	48.2%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	75.5%
	12 (either side)	75.0%
	X2 (draw or away)	49.5%
Handicap -1	Cobresal win	39.3%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.4%
	Loss	37.3%
Correct score (top 3)	2-0	11.2%
	1-1	10.8%
	1-0	10.1%

Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion stats

Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion recent form

newest first

Cobresal	WLWDLL
Universidad de Concepcion	LLLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion going into this match

league record before kick-off

Cobresal record

They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.

Universidad de Concepcion record

They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
They have failed to score in 9 of 23 matches.

Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

3Cobresal wins 1Draws 2Universidad de Concepcion wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-09	Cobresal	Universidad de Concepcion	Copa De La Liga	2-1
2026-04-13	Universidad de Concepcion	Cobresal	Chile Primera División	1-0
2026-03-26	Universidad de Concepcion	Cobresal	Copa De La Liga	2-1
2020-12-08	Cobresal	Universidad de Concepcion	Primera División	3-1
2020-03-05	Universidad de Concepcion	Cobresal	Primera División	2-2
2019-04-15	Cobresal	Universidad de Concepcion	Primera División	1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.4%, draw 25.8%, away 27.8%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.92	3.50	3.37
Bet365	2.00	3.60	3.30
BetVictor	2.00	3.60	3.40
Betano	2.07	3.65	3.40
Betfair	1.91	3.60	3.25
Dafabet	2.05	3.75	3.40
Marathonbet	2.00	3.50	3.32
Pinnacle	2.05	3.70	3.55
SBO	1.98	3.25	3.17
William Hill	2.00	3.30	3.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.00 ▼ -0.10

X 3.60 ▲ +0.14

2 3.34 ▲ +0.23

30 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-26T08:10:01Z.