Cobresal
vs
Universidad de Concepcion
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cobresal
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion
| Probability | Cobresal | Draw | Universidad de Concepcion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.8% | 22.6% | 14.6% |
| Market | 43.6% | 26.9% | 29.5% |
| Final | 48.4% | 25.8% | 25.8% |
| Edge | +19.2% | -4.3% | -14.9% |
Why Cobresal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cobresal below the model: +19.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion match preview
Cobresal is set to face Universidad de Concepcion in a Chile Primera División match on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 48% probability of a Cobresal victory, while both a draw and a Universidad de Concepcion win are at 26%. The expected goals suggest Cobresal may score around 2.02, compared to Universidad de Concepcion's 0.88. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring with an 11% probability.
In terms of recent form, Cobresal has recorded one win, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches, while Universidad de Concepcion has struggled with five losses and one win in their recent outings. Historically, in their last encounter, Universidad de Concepcion secured a win, adding an interesting dynamic to this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting a blend of probabilities and market odds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion attack and defence ratings
Cobresal
Universidad de Concepcion
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cobresal | 48.4% | 2.07 | +19.2% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Cobresal win | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cobresal | 48.4% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Universidad de Concepcion | 25.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% |
| No | 48.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cobresal win | 39.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 37.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.2% |
| 1-1 | 10.8% | |
| 1-0 | 10.1% |
Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion stats
Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion recent form
| Cobresal |
WLWDLL |
| Universidad de Concepcion |
LLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion season so far
Cobresal record
- They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
Universidad de Concepcion record
- They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 23 matches.
Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Cobresal | Universidad de Concepcion | Copa De La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-13 | Universidad de Concepcion | Cobresal | Chile Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Universidad de Concepcion | Cobresal | Copa De La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2020-12-08 | Cobresal | Universidad de Concepcion | Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2020-03-05 | Universidad de Concepcion | Cobresal | Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2019-04-15 | Cobresal | Universidad de Concepcion | Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.6%, draw 26.9%, away 29.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 3.42 | 3.14 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.55 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.42 | 3.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 3.56 | 3.27 |
| SBO | 2.05 | 3.18 | 2.88 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .