A. Italiano
vs
Coquimbo Unido
Garuda Lions Prediction: Coquimbo Unido
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Coquimbo Unido is the favourite, not a value bet.
A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido overview
Garuda Lions analysis: A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido
| Probability | A. Italiano | Draw | Coquimbo Unido |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.9% | 30.5% | 32.6% |
| Market | 34.4% | 28.8% | 36.8% |
| Final | 35.0% | 29.2% | 35.8% |
| Edge | +0.6% | +0.4% | -1.1% |
Why Coquimbo Unido
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.0% per unit staked (our 35.8% × 2.60 − 1).
A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido match preview
A. Italiano faces Coquimbo Unido in the Chile Primera División with a predicted probability of 33% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 37% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline, according to our model, is 0-1, occurring with a 9% probability. Expected goals suggest A. Italiano will score 1.23 while Coquimbo Unido is forecasted to net 1.14.
In terms of recent form, A. Italiano has recorded a sequence of L-D-D-W-W-L, while Coquimbo Unido shows a mixed form with W-L-W-L-L-W. Historically, A. Italiano has not secured a win against Coquimbo Unido in their last three encounters, with Coquimbo Unido winning all three. The model indicates a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.37
A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido attack and defence ratings
A. Italiano
Coquimbo Unido
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coquimbo Unido | 35.8% | 2.79 | -1.1% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.6% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | A. Italiano | 35.0% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Coquimbo Unido | 35.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.4% |
| No | 50.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Coquimbo Unido win | 13.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 67.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 10.7% | |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido stats
A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido recent form
| A. Italiano |
LDDWWL |
| Coquimbo Unido |
WLWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido season so far
A. Italiano record
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coquimbo Unido record
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Coquimbo Unido | A. Italiano | Chile Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | A. Italiano | Coquimbo Unido | Chile Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-30 | Coquimbo Unido | A. Italiano | Chile Primera División | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.4%, draw 28.8%, away 36.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.77 | 3.30 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.68 | 3.28 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.70 | 3.39 | 2.59 |
| SBO | 2.54 | 3.01 | 2.36 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .