Nublense
vs
Colo Colo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Colo Colo
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 1.42.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Nublense vs Colo Colo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nublense vs Colo Colo
| Probability | Nublense | Draw | Colo Colo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.8% | 18.4% | 63.8% |
| Market | 21.3% | 26.2% | 52.4% |
| Final | 20.5% | 24.3% | 55.3% |
| Edge | -0.9% | -2.0% | +2.8% |
Why Colo Colo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Colo Colo below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (our 55.3% × 1.82 − 1).
Nublense vs Colo Colo match preview
Nublense faces Colo Colo in the Chile Primera División with the home side holding a 22% probability of winning, while Colo Colo stands at 54%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.42 for Nublense and 2.70 for Colo Colo. Recent form shows Nublense struggling with five consecutive losses, while Colo Colo has managed to secure two wins in their last six matches.
In terms of scoring, our model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 71%. The head-to-head record favors Colo Colo, who have won two of the last three encounters, with Nublense yet to secure a victory against them in this period.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nublense and Colo Colo expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.12
Nublense and Colo Colo attack and defence ratings
Nublense
Colo Colo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins — team news & stats
- D. La Serena v Palestino — match page
- Everton de Vina vs Concepción
- Universidad de Chile v Cobresal — match page
- Union La Calera v Huachipato — match page
- A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido — team news & stats
- U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Nublense vs Colo Colo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colo Colo | 55.3% | 1.81 | +2.8% | 1.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Colo Colo win | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nublense | 20.5% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Colo Colo | 55.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% |
| No | 28.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colo Colo win | 44.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 36.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.4% |
| 1-3 | 7.6% | |
| 1-1 | 6.9% |
Nublense vs Colo Colo stats
Nublense and Colo Colo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nublense and Colo Colo season so far
Nublense record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colo Colo record
- They have won 17 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nublense vs Colo Colo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Colo Colo | Nublense | Chile Primera División | 6-2 |
| 2025-11-01 | Nublense | Colo Colo | Chile Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-19 | Colo Colo | Nublense | Chile Primera División | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nublense vs Colo Colo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.3%, draw 26.2%, away 52.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.38 | 3.45 | 1.72 |
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 4.70 | 3.70 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 3.75 | 1.82 |
| Marathonbet | 4.50 | 3.52 | 1.73 |
| Pinnacle | 4.61 | 3.62 | 1.78 |
| SBO | 3.74 | 3.31 | 1.73 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .