D. La Serena
vs
Palestino
Garuda Lions Prediction: D. La Serena
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.28.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
D. La Serena vs Palestino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: D. La Serena vs Palestino
| Probability | D. La Serena | Draw | Palestino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.5% | 25.2% | 26.2% |
| Market | 38.0% | 26.9% | 35.1% |
| Final | 40.7% | 26.4% | 32.9% |
| Edge | +2.6% | -0.4% | -2.2% |
Why D. La Serena
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices D. La Serena below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.7% per unit staked (our 40.7% × 2.50 − 1).
D. La Serena vs Palestino match preview
D. La Serena faces Palestino in a Chile Primera División match with probabilities indicating a 41% chance of a home win for La Serena, a 26% likelihood of a draw, and a 33% chance for an away victory for Palestino. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of La Serena, with a 10% probability. The expected goals for the match are 1.80 for La Serena and 1.28 for Palestino.
In terms of recent form, D. La Serena has recorded two wins in their last five matches, while Palestino has struggled with only one win in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Palestino dominating with three wins and no draws or losses against La Serena in their last three encounters. Our model suggests a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 61%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
D. La Serena and Palestino expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
D. La Serena and Palestino attack and defence ratings
D. La Serena
Palestino
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
D. La Serena vs Palestino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | D. La Serena | 40.7% | 2.46 | +2.6% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | D. La Serena | 40.7% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Palestino | 32.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | D. La Serena win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 51.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
D. La Serena vs Palestino stats
D. La Serena and Palestino recent form
| D. La Serena |
DWLLWW |
| Palestino |
LDDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
D. La Serena and Palestino season so far
D. La Serena record
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Palestino record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
D. La Serena vs Palestino head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Palestino | D. La Serena | Chile Primera División | 5-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | D. La Serena | Palestino | Chile Primera División | 0-3 |
| 2025-06-14 | Palestino | D. La Serena | Chile Primera División | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
D. La Serena vs Palestino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.0%, draw 26.9%, away 35.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.55 | 2.72 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.55 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.43 | 3.46 | 2.59 |
| Pinnacle | 2.47 | 3.54 | 2.74 |
| SBO | 2.30 | 3.14 | 2.52 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .