Concepción
vs
Palestino
Garuda Lions Prediction: Concepción
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.97.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Concepción vs Palestino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Concepción vs Palestino
| Probability | Concepción | Draw | Palestino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.4% | 28.4% | 23.1% |
| Market | 36.0% | 27.8% | 36.2% |
| Final | 39.1% | 27.9% | 33.0% |
| Edge | +3.1% | +0.2% | -3.3% |
Why Concepción
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.97.
- The market prices Concepción below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.4% per unit staked (our 39.1% × 2.67 − 1).
Concepción vs Palestino match preview
Concepción and Palestino face off in the Chile Primera División with Concepción holding a slight advantage in the predicted outcomes. According to our model, Concepción has a 38% chance of winning, while Palestino stands at 33%, and the draw is at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Concepción, with an expected goals tally of 1.51 for Concepción and 0.97 for Palestino.
Both teams have had mixed recent performances, with Concepción recording L-D-D-L-W-D and Palestino at D-D-L-W-L-W. The model suggests a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% probability that both teams will score. In their last encounter, Concepción secured a win, with a record of 1 win and no draws against Palestino.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Concepción and Palestino expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
Concepción and Palestino attack and defence ratings
Concepción
Palestino
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Concepción vs Palestino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Concepción | 39.1% | 2.56 | +3.1% | 2.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.4% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Concepción | 39.1% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Palestino | 33.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.6% |
| No | 50.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Concepción win | 25.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 51.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | |
| 0-0 | 9.6% |
Concepción vs Palestino stats
Concepción and Palestino recent form
| Concepción |
LDDLWD |
| Palestino |
DDLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Concepción and Palestino season so far
Concepción record
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
Palestino record
- They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
Concepción vs Palestino head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Palestino | Concepción | Chile Primera División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Concepción vs Palestino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 27.8%, away 36.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.62 | 3.24 | 2.53 |
| Pinnacle | 2.56 | 3.50 | 2.64 |
| SBO | 2.37 | 3.02 | 2.52 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .