Garuda Lions
Today
Chile Primera División · Full time ·Matchday 22

Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion

2 – 1 Full time

19′Luis Rojas
31′Miguel Barbieri
38′Cecilio Waterman
45′Cecilio Waterman
46′Miguel BarbieriDavid Retamal
49′Benjamín Sáez
57′Vicente Espinoza
60′Luis RojasPablo Parra
61′Joe AbrigoFrancisco Montes
61′Marcelo EggelGonzalo Tapia
65′César Munder
72′Bryan CarrascoIan Alegría
73′Benjamín SáezJorge Espejo
73′Rogelio Funes MoriYerco Oyanedel
74′Pablo Parra
76′Jeison Fuentealba
77′César Munder
88′Ronnie FernándezAlbert Gomez
88′Nicolás MezaDilan Salgado
90′Gonzalo Tapia

Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Santiago de ChileReferee: Fernando Andre Vejar Diaz, Chile

Palestino 58%
Draw 24%
Universidad de Concepcion 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 9
9 Shots on target 4
63 Possession % 37
10 Corners 7
13 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 1
3 Saves 7
407 Accurate passes 213

Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPalestinoDrawUniversidad de Concepcion
Model66.2%23.1%10.8%
Market55.6%24.4%20.0%
Final58.2%24.0%17.7%
Edge+10.6%-1.3%-9.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Palestino

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 0.63.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Palestino below the model: +10.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Palestino ↓ / Universidad de → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 14% 11% 2 14% 9% 3 9% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 9%

Palestino and Universidad de Concepcion expected goals

Palestino 1.87
Universidad de Concepcion 0.63

Total expected goals: 2.50

Palestino and Universidad de Concepcion attack and defence ratings

Palestino

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Universidad de Concepcion

Attack 0.63 -37%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion: result vs prediction

Palestino 2 – 1 Universidad de Concepcion

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 22 fixtures

Chile Primera División

Before and after this match

Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Palestino 58.2% 1.72 +10.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.4% 1.84 — —
Both teams to score No 59.6% 1.68 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.3% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Palestino win 40.9% 2.45 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Palestino58.2%
Draw24.0%
Universidad de Concepcion17.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.6%
Under 2.554.4%
Both teams to scoreYes40.4%
No59.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.3%
12 (either side)76.0%
X2 (draw or away)41.8%
Handicap -1Palestino win40.9%
Push (exactly one goal)25.4%
Loss33.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-014.4%
2-014.4%
1-110.6%

Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion stats

Palestino and Universidad de Concepcion recent form

newest first
Palestino LWWLWL
Universidad de Concepcion LWLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Palestino and Universidad de Concepcion going into this match

league record before kick-off

Palestino record

  • They have won 10 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 21 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).

Universidad de Concepcion record

  • They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 21 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

1Palestino wins 2Draws 4Universidad de Concepcion wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-15Universidad de ConcepcionPalestinoChile Primera División1-0
2021-01-07Universidad de ConcepcionPalestinoPrimera División1-1
2020-10-01PalestinoUniversidad de ConcepcionPrimera División0-1
2019-09-01Universidad de ConcepcionPalestinoPrimera División0-0
2019-03-09PalestinoUniversidad de ConcepcionPrimera División4-1
2018-07-21Universidad de ConcepcionPalestinoPrimera División3-2
2018-05-06PalestinoUniversidad de ConcepcionPrimera División1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.0%, draw 24.2%, away 19.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.64 3.85 4.55
1xBet 1.62 3.75 4.58
Bet365 1.67 3.70 4.50
BetVictor 1.67 3.90 4.75
Betano 1.70 3.90 4.85
Betfair 1.57 3.90 4.75
Dafabet 1.67 4.00 5.00
Marathonbet 1.66 3.84 4.65
Pinnacle 1.71 4.04 4.77
SBO 1.55 3.55 4.53
Superbet 1.64 3.80 4.70
Unibet 1.70 3.75 4.70
William Hill 1.65 3.60 4.33

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 ▲ +0.06
X 3.79 ▼ -0.16
2 4.62 ▼ -0.83

15 snapshots recorded, from .