LD Alajuelense
vs
CS Herediano
Garuda Lions Prediction: LD Alajuelense
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano
| Probability | LD Alajuelense | Draw | CS Herediano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.4% | 22.2% | 12.4% |
| Market | 47.8% | 28.4% | 23.8% |
| Final | 52.2% | 26.9% | 20.9% |
| Edge | +17.6% | -6.2% | -11.4% |
Why LD Alajuelense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices LD Alajuelense below the model: +17.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano match preview
LD Alajuelense enters this match with a 65% probability of winning against CS Herediano, who has a 12% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Alajuelense, with an expected goals figure of 2.00, compared to Herediano's 0.76. Recent form shows Alajuelense with a mixed record of W-L-L-D-L-W, while Herediano has struggled significantly, losing their last six matches.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, there is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and a 47% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head record over the last five encounters indicates a competitive rivalry, with Alajuelense winning twice, Herediano also winning twice, and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
LD Alajuelense and CS Herediano expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.77
LD Alajuelense and CS Herediano attack and defence ratings
LD Alajuelense
CS Herediano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | LD Alajuelense | 52.2% | 1.92 | +17.6% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | LD Alajuelense win | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | LD Alajuelense | 52.2% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| CS Herediano | 20.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.2% |
| No | 52.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | LD Alajuelense win | 41.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 34.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 11.6% | |
| 1-1 | 10.6% |
LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano stats
LD Alajuelense and CS Herediano recent form
| LD Alajuelense |
WLLDLW |
| CS Herediano |
LWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
LD Alajuelense and CS Herediano season so far
LD Alajuelense record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
CS Herediano record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | CS Herediano | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División | 0-3 |
| 2026-03-22 | CS Herediano | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-08 | LD Alajuelense | CS Herediano | Costa Rica Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-17 | CS Herediano | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División | 1-3 |
| 2025-08-10 | LD Alajuelense | CS Herediano | Costa Rica Primera División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.8%, draw 28.4%, away 23.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.18 | 3.74 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.15 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.18 | 3.64 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.00 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .