Costa Rica Primera División · 2026-10-15T02:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Apertura - 11

LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano

1 – 1 Full time

7′			R. Cisneros
12′			A. Cruz
18′			J. Ruiz
26′			D. Carvajal
28′			R. Wilson
37′			E. RubioR. Araya
45′			R. Matarrita
45′			F. Lesme
46′			JuanpiY. Molina
46′			G. Gonzalez
58′			F. Lesme
59′			E. BravoR. Leal
59′			E. JuarezA. Murillo
66′			R. MatarritaA. Hernandez
69′			A. Gamboa
72′			R. CisnerosL. Diaz
83′			A. CruzA. Hudson
83′			H. QuirosK. Fuller
83′			K. MichelC. Perez
83′			C. BorgesA. Salazar
90′			A. Salazar

Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, AlajuelaReferee: D. Gomez

LD Alajuelense

52%

Draw

26%

CS Herediano

21%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano overview

Garuda Lions analysis: LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	LD Alajuelense	Draw	CS Herediano
Model	65.9%	22.7%	11.3%
Market	47.9%	27.7%	24.4%
Final	52.4%	26.5%	21.1%
Edge	+4.5%	-1.2%	-3.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why LD Alajuelense

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.68.
The market prices LD Alajuelense below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

91%

2+ goals

74%

3+ goals

48%

No goals

LD Alajuelense and CS Herediano expected goals

LD Alajuelense

1.90

CS Herediano

0.68

Total expected goals: 2.58

LD Alajuelense and CS Herediano attack and defence ratings

LD Alajuelense

Attack

1.29 +29%

Defence

0.96 -4%

CS Herediano

Attack

0.64 -36%

Defence

1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano: result vs prediction

LD Alajuelense 1 – 1 CS Herediano

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures

Costa Rica Primera División

CS Cartagines vs Puntarenas FC — team news & stats · 2026-10-14
San Carlos v Inter San Carlos — match page · 2026-10-14
Perez Zeledon v Escorpiones Belén — match page · 2026-10-14
Deportivo Saprissa vs Sporting San Jose · 2026-10-16

Before and after this match

LD Alajuelense, previous: Puntarenas FC vs LD Alajuelense: odds and pick
LD Alajuelense, next: Inter San Carlos vs LD Alajuelense prediction
CS Herediano, previous: CS Herediano v San Carlos analysis
CS Herediano, next: Perez Zeledon vs CS Herediano prediction

LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	LD Alajuelense	52.4%	1.91	+4.5%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	51.9%	1.93	—	—
Both teams to score	No	57.1%	1.75	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	78.9%	1.27	—	—
Handicap -1	LD Alajuelense win	40.6%	2.46	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	LD Alajuelense	52.4%
	Draw	26.5%
	CS Herediano	21.1%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	48.1%
	Under 2.5	51.9%
Both teams to score	Yes	42.9%
	No	57.1%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	78.9%
	12 (either side)	73.5%
	X2 (draw or away)	47.6%
Handicap -1	LD Alajuelense win	40.6%
	Push (exactly one goal)	24.9%
	Loss	34.5%
Correct score (top 3)	2-0	13.7%
	1-0	13.3%
	1-1	10.7%

LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano stats

LD Alajuelense and CS Herediano recent form

newest first

LD Alajuelense	DWLLDL
CS Herediano	LLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

LD Alajuelense and CS Herediano going into this match

league record before kick-off

LD Alajuelense record

They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

CS Herediano record

They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4LD Alajuelense wins 2Draws 4CS Herediano wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-08-10	CS Herediano	LD Alajuelense	Costa Rica Primera División	0-3
2026-07-12	LD Alajuelense	CS Herediano	Supercopa	0-1
2026-03-22	CS Herediano	LD Alajuelense	Costa Rica Primera División	2-1
2026-02-08	LD Alajuelense	CS Herediano	Costa Rica Primera División	1-1
2025-10-17	CS Herediano	LD Alajuelense	Costa Rica Primera División	1-3
2025-08-10	LD Alajuelense	CS Herediano	Costa Rica Primera División	0-1
2025-07-20	CS Herediano	LD Alajuelense	Recopa	0-1
2025-05-29	CS Herediano	LD Alajuelense	Primera División	1-0
2025-05-25	LD Alajuelense	CS Herediano	Primera División	0-0
2025-03-09	CS Herediano	LD Alajuelense	Primera División	1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

LD Alajuelense vs CS Herediano odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.9%, draw 27.7%, away 24.4%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.91	3.18	3.74
Bet365	1.85	3.40	3.60
BetVictor	1.87	3.30	3.90
Betano	1.93	3.35	3.75
Betfair	1.85	3.30	3.80
Dafabet	1.92	3.45	3.75
Marathonbet	1.89	3.18	3.64
Pinnacle	1.91	3.45	4.09
SBO	1.91	3.00	3.42
William Hill	1.91	3.10	3.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.91 ▲ +0.02

X 3.30 ▲ +0.12

2 3.75 ▼ -0.05

12 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-09T08:10:02Z.