Sigma Olomouc
vs
Pardubice
3 – 1 Full time
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice
| Probability | Sigma Olomouc | Draw | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.5% | 23.4% | 21.0% |
| Market | 48.1% | 26.3% | 25.6% |
| Final | 50.0% | 25.6% | 24.4% |
| Edge | +7.4% | -2.9% | -4.6% |
Why Sigma Olomouc
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sigma Olomouc below the model: +7.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.18
Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice attack and defence ratings
Sigma Olomouc
Pardubice
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice: result vs prediction
Sigma Olomouc 3 – 1 Pardubice
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sigma Olomouc | 50.0% | 2.00 | +7.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sigma Olomouc | 50.0% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Pardubice | 24.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sigma Olomouc win | 33.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 44.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice stats
Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice recent form
| Sigma Olomouc |
WWDLWW |
| Pardubice |
DLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice going into this match
Sigma Olomouc record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Pardubice record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Pardubice | Sigma Olomouc | Czech Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Sigma Olomouc | Pardubice | Czech Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.2%, draw 26.4%, away 25.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.88 | 3.45 | 3.75 |
| 1xBet | 1.93 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| 888Sport | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.45 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.65 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.96 | 3.68 | 3.74 |
| SBO | 1.95 | 3.16 | 3.34 |
| Superbet | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| Unibet | 1.81 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .