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FNL · Full time ·Matchday 10

Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava II

3 – 2 Full time

45′M. Tomic
46′J. SvozilA. Franke
46′D. VelasquezD. Zamazal
55′S. Hindi
56′S. SebrleJ. Okebugwu
61′M. TemelS. Drozd
69′M. BittaD. Latal
69′L. DvoracekA. Fiala
72′B. DialloP. Corr
76′A. Fiala
78′S. Vlna
79′D. Zamazal
81′S. HindiN. Cisse
85′T. SirotekF. Svrcek
85′T. FrydlF. Rajcan
88′D. Latal
90′P. Corr
90′A. Fiala

Stadion Juliska, PragueReferee: A. Mach

Dukla Praha 48%
Draw 26%
Baník Ostrava II 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava II overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava II

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDukla PrahaDrawBaník Ostrava II
Model40.1%25.8%34.2%
Market50.5%25.9%23.6%
Final47.9%25.9%26.2%
Edge-2.6%-0.0%+2.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Dukla Praha ↓ / Baník Ostrava → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 12% 8% 2 9% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava II expected goals

Dukla Praha 1.64
Baník Ostrava II 1.50

Total expected goals: 3.13

Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava II attack and defence ratings

Dukla Praha

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Baník Ostrava II

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava II: result vs prediction

Dukla Praha 3 – 2 Baník Ostrava II

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

FNL

Before and after this match

Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava II markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Dukla Praha 47.9% 2.09 -2.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.6% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.6% 1.57 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.1% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.9% 1.67 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Dukla Praha47.9%
Draw25.9%
Baník Ostrava II26.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%
Both teams to scoreYes63.6%
No36.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.8%
12 (either side)74.1%
X2 (draw or away)52.1%
Handicap -1Dukla Praha win20.9%
Push (exactly one goal)19.2%
Loss59.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.7%
2-18.7%
1-28.0%

Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava II stats

Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava II recent form

newest first
Dukla Praha DWWWLL
Baník Ostrava II LWDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava II going into this match

league record before kick-off

Dukla Praha record

  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Baník Ostrava II record

  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava II head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava II odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.5%, draw 25.9%, away 23.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.75 3.48 4.00
Bet365 1.75 3.40 3.90
BetVictor 1.80 3.60 3.80
Betano 1.88 3.60 3.75
Betfair 1.75 3.75 3.75
Dafabet 1.86 3.65 3.90
Marathonbet 1.73 3.48 3.90
Pinnacle 1.80 3.53 3.94
SBO 1.79 3.21 3.37
William Hill 1.80 3.30 3.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.79 ▲ +0.04
X 3.50 ▼ -0.04
2 3.85 ▲ +0.05

13 snapshots recorded, from .