Karviná
vs
Dukla Praha
Garuda Lions Prediction: Karviná
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Karviná vs Dukla Praha overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Karviná vs Dukla Praha
| Probability | Karviná | Draw | Dukla Praha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.1% | 21.7% | 28.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 50.1% | 21.7% | 28.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Karviná
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Karviná vs Dukla Praha match preview
Karviná faces Dukla Praha in the FNL on October 16, 2026, with a 50% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Karviná stand at 2.25, while Dukla Praha is projected to score 1.68. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring with an 8% probability. Both teams have shown offensive capabilities, with a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% likelihood that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Karviná has recorded three wins and two losses in their last five matches, while Dukla Praha has two wins, two draws, and a loss in their most recent outings. Historically, Karviná has dominated their last two encounters, winning both without conceding, which may influence the dynamics of this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Karviná and Dukla Praha expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.65
Karviná and Dukla Praha attack and defence ratings
Karviná
Dukla Praha
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Karviná vs Dukla Praha markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Karviná | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Karviná | 50.1% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Dukla Praha | 28.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.4% |
| No | 26.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Karviná win | 30.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.4% |
| 1-1 | 8.2% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Karviná vs Dukla Praha stats
Karviná and Dukla Praha recent form
| Karviná |
WWLWLW |
| Dukla Praha |
DWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Karviná and Dukla Praha season so far
Karviná record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dukla Praha record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Karviná vs Dukla Praha head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Dukla Praha | Karviná | Czech Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-07-19 | Karviná | Dukla Praha | Czech Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.