Esbjerg
vs
Aalborg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aalborg
1 – 2 Predicted score · 6% model probability
Esbjerg vs Aalborg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Esbjerg vs Aalborg
| Probability | Esbjerg | Draw | Aalborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.5% | 23.0% | 25.5% |
| Market | 32.5% | 25.7% | 41.8% |
| Final | 37.3% | 25.0% | 37.7% |
| Edge | +19.0% | -2.7% | -16.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Esbjerg vs Aalborg match preview
Esbjerg faces Aalborg in the Denmark 1. Division with both teams showing mixed recent form. Esbjerg's last five matches include two wins, one draw, and two losses, while Aalborg has recorded two draws, one win, and two losses. The model suggests a close contest, with Esbjerg holding a 37% probability of winning compared to Aalborg's 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Aalborg, with a 6% likelihood.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, the expected goals for Esbjerg stand at 2.06, while Aalborg is at 1.42. The probabilities indicate a strong chance of over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 67%. Historically, Esbjerg has the upper hand in their last two encounters, winning once and drawing once against Aalborg, who has yet to secure a victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Esbjerg and Aalborg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.49
Esbjerg and Aalborg attack and defence ratings
Esbjerg
Aalborg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Esbjerg vs Aalborg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aalborg | 37.7% | 2.65 | -16.3% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Esbjerg | 37.3% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Aalborg | 37.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% |
| No | 32.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aalborg win | 11.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.8% | |
| Loss | 74.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 2-2 | 6.6% |
Esbjerg vs Aalborg stats
Esbjerg and Aalborg recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Esbjerg and Aalborg season so far
Esbjerg record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Aalborg record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Esbjerg vs Aalborg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Aalborg | Esbjerg | Denmark 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-19 | Esbjerg | Aalborg | Denmark 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-30 | Esbjerg | Aalborg | DBU Pokalen | 0-2 |
| 2021-06-30 | Aalborg | Esbjerg | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2020-08-19 | Esbjerg | Aalborg | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2020-05-31 | Esbjerg | Aalborg | Superliga | 1-1 |
| 2019-08-11 | Aalborg | Esbjerg | Superliga | 4-0 |
| 2018-11-30 | Esbjerg | Aalborg | Superliga | 1-4 |
| 2018-08-27 | Aalborg | Esbjerg | Superliga | 0-1 |
| 2016-11-04 | Esbjerg | Aalborg | Superliga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Esbjerg vs Aalborg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.5%, draw 25.7%, away 41.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.84 | 3.58 | 2.23 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.92 | 3.55 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.22 |
| Marathonbet | 2.82 | 3.58 | 2.21 |
| Pinnacle | 2.88 | 3.65 | 2.25 |
| SBO | 2.65 | 3.33 | 2.11 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .