HB Koge
vs
Aalborg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aalborg
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aalborg is the favourite, not a value bet.
HB Koge vs Aalborg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: HB Koge vs Aalborg
| Probability | HB Koge | Draw | Aalborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.6% | 24.8% | 33.7% |
| Market | 29.4% | 25.5% | 45.1% |
| Final | 32.4% | 25.3% | 42.2% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -0.2% | -2.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (our 42.2% × 2.34 − 1).
HB Koge vs Aalborg match preview
In the upcoming match between HB Koge and Aalborg, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Aalborg holding a 42% chance of victory compared to HB Koge's 32% and a 25% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, with a 67% chance of both scoring and a 65% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Recent form shows HB Koge with a mixed record of L-D-L-W-W-D, while Aalborg has struggled, recording D-L-L-D-D-D. In their last ten meetings, HB Koge has yet to secure a win, with Aalborg dominating with 8 victories and 2 draws. The expected goals for the match are 1.76 for HB Koge and 1.57 for Aalborg, suggesting a closely contested match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
HB Koge and Aalborg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.33
HB Koge and Aalborg attack and defence ratings
HB Koge
Aalborg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
HB Koge vs Aalborg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aalborg | 42.2% | 2.37 | -2.9% | 2.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.7% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HB Koge | 32.4% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Aalborg | 42.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.6% |
| No | 33.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aalborg win | 16.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.9% | |
| Loss | 66.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
HB Koge vs Aalborg stats
HB Koge and Aalborg recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
HB Koge and Aalborg season so far
HB Koge record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
Aalborg record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HB Koge vs Aalborg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Aalborg | HB Koge | Denmark 1. Division | 0-0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Aalborg | HB Koge | Denmark 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | HB Koge | Aalborg | Denmark 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-02 | Aalborg | HB Koge | Denmark 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-10 | HB Koge | Aalborg | Denmark 1. Division | 0-2 |
| 2023-12-03 | HB Koge | Aalborg | 1. Division | 1-2 |
| 2023-09-22 | Aalborg | HB Koge | 1. Division | 2-0 |
| 2019-11-27 | HB Koge | Aalborg | DBU Pokalen | 0-3 |
| 2013-09-24 | HB Koge | Aalborg | DBU Pokalen | 1-2 |
| 2012-05-20 | Aalborg | HB Koge | Superliga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
HB Koge vs Aalborg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.4%, draw 25.5%, away 45.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.14 | 3.65 | 2.05 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.55 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 3.65 | 2.03 |
| Pinnacle | 3.39 | 3.85 | 2.03 |
| SBO | 2.42 | 3.22 | 2.34 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .