Hvidovre
vs
Aarhus Fremad
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hvidovre
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.73.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hvidovre is the favourite, not a value bet.
Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad
| Probability | Hvidovre | Draw | Aarhus Fremad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.6% | 31.5% | 19.9% |
| Market | 48.2% | 25.9% | 25.9% |
| Final | 48.3% | 27.3% | 24.4% |
| Edge | +0.1% | +1.4% | -1.5% |
Why Hvidovre
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.8% per unit staked (our 48.3% × 1.95 − 1).
Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad match preview
Hvidovre enters the match against Aarhus Fremad with a recent form of D-D-W-W-W-D, indicating a solid performance trend. Their expected goals stand at 1.29, suggesting they are likely to create more scoring opportunities than their opponents, who have an expected goals figure of 0.73. The model predicts a 47% probability of a Hvidovre victory, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 16%.
On the other hand, Aarhus Fremad's recent form shows W-L-D-D-L-L, reflecting struggles in their performances. The probability of a draw is 27%, while Aarhus Fremad has a 26% chance of winning. The likelihood of both teams scoring is estimated at 39%, which, combined with the expectation of 33% for over 2.5 goals, indicates a potentially low-scoring affair.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hvidovre and Aarhus Fremad expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.02
Hvidovre and Aarhus Fremad attack and defence ratings
Hvidovre
Aarhus Fremad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hvidovre | 48.3% | 2.07 | +0.1% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hvidovre | 48.3% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Aarhus Fremad | 24.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.9% |
| No | 61.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hvidovre win | 23.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.3% | |
| Loss | 51.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.8% |
| 0-0 | 14.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad stats
Hvidovre and Aarhus Fremad recent form
| Hvidovre |
DDWWWD |
| Aarhus Fremad |
WLDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hvidovre and Aarhus Fremad season so far
Hvidovre record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aarhus Fremad record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Aarhus Fremad | Hvidovre | Denmark 1. Division | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-01 | Aarhus Fremad | Hvidovre | Denmark 1. Division | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-15 | Hvidovre | Aarhus Fremad | Denmark 1. Division | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.2%, draw 25.9%, away 25.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.58 | 3.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 1.95 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.58 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.71 | 3.67 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 3.06 | 3.13 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .