Aarhus Fremad
vs
Hillerød
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aarhus Fremad
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aarhus Fremad is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød
| Probability | Aarhus Fremad | Draw | Hillerød |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.7% | 34.3% | 37.1% |
| Market | 46.1% | 26.6% | 27.3% |
| Final | 41.8% | 28.5% | 29.7% |
| Edge | -4.4% | +1.9% | +2.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.6% per unit staked (our 41.8% × 2.07 − 1).
Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød match preview
Aarhus Fremad faces Hillerød in the Denmark 1. Division with a predicted probability of 42% for a home win, while Hillerød stands at 30% and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline from our model suggests a 1-0 victory for Aarhus Fremad, with a 12% probability. Expected goals indicate Aarhus Fremad at 0.88 and Hillerød at 1.03, highlighting a competitive matchup.
In terms of recent form, Aarhus Fremad has recorded three draws and two losses in their last six matches, while Hillerød has secured two wins, two losses, and a draw in the same period. The head-to-head record from their last three encounters shows one win each for both teams and one draw, indicating a balanced rivalry. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aarhus Fremad and Hillerød expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.91
Aarhus Fremad and Hillerød attack and defence ratings
Aarhus Fremad
Hillerød
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus Fremad | 41.8% | 2.39 | -4.4% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus Fremad | 41.8% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Hillerød | 29.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.0% |
| No | 61.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aarhus Fremad win | 10.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 71.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.1% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 0-1 | 14.0% |
Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød stats
Aarhus Fremad and Hillerød recent form
| Aarhus Fremad |
DDLLDD |
| Hillerød |
WLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aarhus Fremad and Hillerød season so far
Aarhus Fremad record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hillerød record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Hillerød | Aarhus Fremad | Denmark 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Hillerød | Aarhus Fremad | Denmark 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Aarhus Fremad | Hillerød | Denmark 1. Division | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.1%, draw 26.6%, away 27.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.45 | 3.35 |
| Dafabet | 2.03 | 3.45 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 1.98 | 3.50 | 3.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 3.50 | 3.57 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.40 |