Aalborg
vs
Hobro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aalborg
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.26.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aalborg is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aalborg vs Hobro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aalborg vs Hobro
| Probability | Aalborg | Draw | Hobro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.8% | 24.2% | 24.0% |
| Market | 52.8% | 24.5% | 22.7% |
| Final | 52.6% | 24.4% | 23.0% |
| Edge | -0.3% | -0.1% | +0.3% |
Why Aalborg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.4% per unit staked (our 52.6% × 1.78 − 1).
Aalborg vs Hobro match preview
Aalborg enters this matchup against Hobro with a probability of 48% to secure a win, while Hobro's chances stand at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Aalborg, occurring with a 10% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 63% probability, and there is a 62% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Aalborg has recorded one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Hobro has struggled with two draws and three losses in the same timeframe. The expected goals for Aalborg are 1.92, compared to Hobro's 1.28, indicating a stronger offensive performance from the home side. The head-to-head record shows Aalborg with one win, two draws, and two losses against Hobro in their last five encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aalborg and Hobro expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.18
Aalborg and Hobro attack and defence ratings
Aalborg
Hobro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aalborg vs Hobro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aalborg | 52.6% | 1.90 | -0.3% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.2% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aalborg | 52.6% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Hobro | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.2% |
| No | 37.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aalborg win | 30.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 48.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
Aalborg vs Hobro stats
Aalborg and Hobro recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aalborg and Hobro season so far
Aalborg record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hobro record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aalborg vs Hobro head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Hobro | Aalborg | Denmark 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Aalborg | Hobro | Denmark 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Hobro | Aalborg | Denmark 1. Division | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Hobro | Aalborg | Denmark 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-01 | Aalborg | Hobro | Denmark 1. Division | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aalborg vs Hobro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 24.5%, away 22.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 3.84 | 4.05 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.30 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.65 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.84 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.85 | 4.11 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .