Hobro
vs
Esbjerg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Esbjerg
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.32.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Hobro vs Esbjerg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hobro vs Esbjerg
| Probability | Hobro | Draw | Esbjerg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.8% | 24.5% | 49.7% |
| Market | 36.8% | 26.7% | 36.5% |
| Final | 34.1% | 26.2% | 39.8% |
| Edge | -2.7% | -0.6% | +3.3% |
Why Esbjerg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Esbjerg below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.4% per unit staked (our 39.8% × 2.60 − 1).
Hobro vs Esbjerg match preview
Hobro faces Esbjerg in a Denmark 1. Division clash with Hobro having a 25% chance of winning, while Esbjerg holds a 51% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring match, with a 65% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance for both teams to score.
Recent form shows Hobro struggling with three draws and two losses in their last six matches, while Esbjerg has had a mixed performance with two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. Historically, Hobro has had the upper hand in their last three encounters, winning twice and drawing once against Esbjerg, who has yet to secure a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hobro and Esbjerg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.21
Hobro and Esbjerg attack and defence ratings
Hobro
Esbjerg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hobro vs Esbjerg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Esbjerg | 39.8% | 2.51 | +3.3% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hobro | 34.1% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Esbjerg | 39.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% |
| No | 36.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Esbjerg win | 28.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 50.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.2% |
Hobro vs Esbjerg stats
Hobro and Esbjerg recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hobro and Esbjerg season so far
Hobro record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Esbjerg record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hobro vs Esbjerg head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Esbjerg | Hobro | Denmark 1. Division | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-16 | Esbjerg | Hobro | Denmark 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Hobro | Esbjerg | Denmark 1. Division | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-03 | Esbjerg | Hobro | 1. Division | 3-2 |
| 2024-07-26 | Hobro | Esbjerg | 1. Division | 3-6 |
| 2022-05-22 | Hobro | Esbjerg | 1. Division | 1-2 |
| 2022-03-31 | Esbjerg | Hobro | 1. Division | 2-2 |
| 2021-10-29 | Hobro | Esbjerg | 1. Division | 2-6 |
| 2021-09-10 | Esbjerg | Hobro | 1. Division | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hobro vs Esbjerg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.8%, draw 26.7%, away 36.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.51 | 3.45 | 2.51 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.45 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.51 | 3.45 | 2.51 |
| Pinnacle | 2.56 | 3.53 | 2.60 |
| SBO | 2.35 | 3.11 | 2.35 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .