Hillerød
vs
Aalborg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hillerød
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Hillerød vs Aalborg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hillerød vs Aalborg
| Probability | Hillerød | Draw | Aalborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.6% | 24.3% | 24.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 51.6% | 24.3% | 24.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Hillerød
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Hillerød vs Aalborg match preview
Hillerød faces Aalborg in an intriguing matchup, with Hillerød holding a 52% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals suggest a strong offensive performance from Hillerød at 1.91, compared to Aalborg's 1.26. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams are also expected to contribute to the scoreline, with a 62% chance of both teams finding the net.
In terms of recent form, Hillerød has recorded a mixed set of results with one win in their last six matches, while Aalborg has been slightly more consistent, with one win in their last six as well. The head-to-head record shows Hillerød has not secured a win against Aalborg in their last three encounters, with two draws and one win for Aalborg. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hillerød and Aalborg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.18
Hillerød and Aalborg attack and defence ratings
Hillerød
Aalborg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hillerød vs Aalborg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hillerød | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.4% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hillerød | 51.6% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Aalborg | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% |
| No | 37.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hillerød win | 30.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 48.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
Hillerød vs Aalborg stats
Hillerød and Aalborg recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hillerød and Aalborg season so far
Hillerød record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aalborg record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Hillerød vs Aalborg head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Aalborg | Hillerød | Denmark 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Aalborg | Hillerød | Denmark 1. Division | 3-3 |
| 2025-07-26 | Hillerød | Aalborg | Denmark 1. Division | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.