Aarhus
vs
AC Horsens
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aarhus
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aarhus is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aarhus vs AC Horsens overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aarhus vs AC Horsens
| Probability | Aarhus | Draw | AC Horsens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.9% | 28.2% | 35.9% |
| Market | 59.4% | 21.9% | 18.7% |
| Final | 53.5% | 23.5% | 23.0% |
| Edge | -5.9% | +1.6% | +4.3% |
Why Aarhus
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.3% per unit staked (our 53.5% × 1.62 − 1).
Aarhus vs AC Horsens match preview
Aarhus and AC Horsens are set to clash in the Denmark Superliga, with Aarhus holding a 41% probability of winning compared to AC Horsens' 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Aarhus, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoreline, as indicated by a 63% probability of both teams scoring and a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Recent form shows Aarhus with a record of W-W-D-D-L-W, while AC Horsens has struggled, recording L-L-W-D-D-D in their last six matches. In their last 10 encounters, Aarhus has dominated with 7 wins, while AC Horsens has only secured 2 victories. The expected goals for this match are 1.65 for Aarhus and 1.47 for AC Horsens, reflecting a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aarhus and AC Horsens expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Aarhus and AC Horsens attack and defence ratings
Aarhus
AC Horsens
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aarhus vs AC Horsens markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus | 53.5% | 1.87 | -5.9% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus | 53.5% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| AC Horsens | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% |
| No | 43.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aarhus win | 16.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 64.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
Aarhus vs AC Horsens stats
Aarhus and AC Horsens recent form
| Aarhus |
DLWWDD |
| AC Horsens |
LLWDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aarhus and AC Horsens season so far
Aarhus record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AC Horsens record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Aarhus vs AC Horsens head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | AC Horsens | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga | 2-2 |
| 2026-07-15 | Aarhus | AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2025-07-02 | Aarhus | AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2024-06-30 | AC Horsens | Aarhus | Friendlies Clubs | 0-3 |
| 2023-07-08 | Aarhus | AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2023-03-03 | Aarhus | AC Horsens | Superliga | 2-0 |
| 2022-11-26 | Aarhus | AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2022-08-26 | AC Horsens | Aarhus | Superliga | 2-1 |
| 2020-12-16 | Aarhus | AC Horsens | DBU Pokalen | 1-0 |
| 2020-12-13 | AC Horsens | Aarhus | Superliga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aarhus vs AC Horsens odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.4%, draw 21.9%, away 18.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 4.30 | 4.97 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.61 | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 4.30 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| SBO | 1.52 | 3.78 | 4.47 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .