FC Midtjylland
vs
Sonderjyske
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Midtjylland
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.98 vs 1.50.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Midtjylland is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske
| Probability | FC Midtjylland | Draw | Sonderjyske |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.2% | 16.6% | 16.2% |
| Market | 70.8% | 16.8% | 12.4% |
| Final | 69.9% | 16.7% | 13.4% |
| Edge | -0.9% | -0.0% | +0.9% |
Why FC Midtjylland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.98 vs 1.50.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (our 69.9% × 1.35 − 1).
FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske match preview
FC Midtjylland enters the match against Sonderjyske with a strong probability of winning at 70%. Their recent form shows a mixed bag with three wins and two losses in the last five matches. In contrast, Sonderjyske has struggled, recording only one win in their last six games. The expected goals for FC Midtjylland stand at 2.98, while Sonderjyske is projected to score 1.50, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, with an 8% likelihood. Additionally, there is an 82% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and a 74% probability that both teams will find the net. Historically, FC Midtjylland has performed well against Sonderjyske, with three wins and one draw in their last five encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Midtjylland and Sonderjyske expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.48
FC Midtjylland and Sonderjyske attack and defence ratings
FC Midtjylland
Sonderjyske
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Midtjylland | 69.9% | 1.43 | -0.9% | 1.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.4% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.6% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Midtjylland win | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Midtjylland | 69.9% |
| Draw | 16.7% | |
| Sonderjyske | 13.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.2% |
| No | 25.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Midtjylland win | 48.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 32.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.5% |
| 3-1 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 5.6% |
FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske stats
FC Midtjylland and Sonderjyske recent form
| FC Midtjylland |
LWWWLW |
| Sonderjyske |
LLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Midtjylland and Sonderjyske season so far
FC Midtjylland record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sonderjyske record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Sonderjyske | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga | 2-3 |
| 2026-04-23 | Sonderjyske | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-04 | FC Midtjylland | Sonderjyske | Denmark Superliga | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-23 | Sonderjyske | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-28 | FC Midtjylland | Sonderjyske | Denmark Superliga | 6-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.8%, draw 16.8%, away 12.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 5.60 | 7.47 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.50 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.25 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.35 | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.33 | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.31 | 5.60 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.34 | 6.01 | 7.14 |
| SBO | 1.29 | 4.94 | 6.09 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .