Garuda Lions
Today
Egypt Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 3

Al Ahly vs Smouha SC

1 – 0 Full time

-5′Hussein Taimor
45′Hesham Hafez
55′Taher Mohamed
57′Mohamed Hany
57′Amr El Sisi
61′A. SamadouM. Adel
61′M. FaroukA. Mohamed
67′T. MohamedAfsha
67′A. MahmoudM. Bakrar
73′A. El SisiA. El Nadry
73′M. DesoukiE. Nweke
81′H. HafezA. Gamal
86′ZizoA. Abdallah
87′Y. Ibrahim
90′S. BenjdidaA. Reda

Cairo International Stadium, Cairo

Al Ahly 66%
Draw 23%
Smouha SC 11%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 0
4 Shots on target 0
66 Possession % 34
9 Corners 1
13 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0
0 Saves 3
481 Accurate passes 207

Al Ahly vs Smouha SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Al Ahly vs Smouha SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAl AhlyDrawSmouha SC
Model67.2%22.8%10.0%
Market66.2%23.0%10.8%
Final66.4%22.9%10.6%
Edge+1.1%-0.2%-0.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Al Ahly

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.66.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Al Ahly ↓ / Smouha SC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 14% 11% 2 14% 9% 3 8% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 9%

Al Ahly and Smouha SC expected goals

Al Ahly 1.83
Smouha SC 0.66

Total expected goals: 2.49

Al Ahly and Smouha SC attack and defence ratings

Al Ahly

Attack 1.65 +65%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Smouha SC

Attack 0.70 -30%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Al Ahly vs Smouha SC: result vs prediction

Al Ahly 1 – 0 Smouha SC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Egypt Premier League

Before and after this match

Al Ahly vs Smouha SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Al Ahly 66.4% 1.51 +1.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.5% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score No 61.5% 1.63 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 89.4% 1.12 — —
Handicap -1 Al Ahly win 39.1% 2.56 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Al Ahly66.4%
Draw22.9%
Smouha SC10.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.5%
Under 2.555.5%
Both teams to scoreYes38.5%
No61.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)89.4%
12 (either side)77.1%
X2 (draw or away)33.6%
Handicap -1Al Ahly win39.1%
Push (exactly one goal)25.4%
Loss35.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-015.1%
2-015.0%
1-110.4%

Al Ahly vs Smouha SC stats

Al Ahly and Smouha SC recent form

newest first
Al Ahly WWWWWL
Smouha SC DLLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Al Ahly vs Smouha SC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Al Ahly wins 2Draws 2Smouha SC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-11Al AhlySmouha SCEgypt Premier League2-1
2026-02-23Smouha SCAl AhlyEgypt Premier League0-1
2025-01-07Al AhlySmouha SCPremier League2-0
2024-08-08Smouha SCAl AhlyPremier League0-1
2023-11-28Al AhlySmouha SCPremier League0-0
2023-04-17Smouha SCAl AhlyPremier League0-2
2023-01-17Al AhlySmouha SCCup3-1
2022-12-25Al AhlySmouha SCPremier League0-0
2022-06-29Smouha SCAl AhlyPremier League3-2
2022-01-27Smouha SCAl AhlyLeague Cup3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Al Ahly vs Smouha SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 66.2%, draw 23.0%, away 10.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.39 3.95 8.50
1xBet 1.33 4.20 9.10
Bet365 1.42 4.33 5.75
BetVictor 1.33 4.00 8.50
Betano 1.42 4.00 7.70
Betfair 1.40 4.00 8.50
Dafabet 1.45 4.00 7.20
Marathonbet 1.38 3.90 7.70
Pinnacle 1.46 4.04 8.49
SBO 1.36 3.77 6.66
Superbet 1.40 4.25 7.30
Unibet 1.36 4.25 8.50
William Hill 1.36 4.00 9.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.39 ▼ -0.02
X 4.00 ▲ +0.01
2 8.49 ▲ +0.99

9 snapshots recorded, from .