Alianza
vs
Fuerte San Francisco
2 – 2 Full time
| 44′ | J. Barreto | ||
| 62′ | L. Menjivar | ||
| 71′ | J. Gallardo | ||
| 82′ | Gustavo Souza |
Alianza vs Fuerte San Francisco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza vs Fuerte San Francisco
| Probability | Alianza | Draw | Fuerte San Francisco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.0% | 26.2% | 16.8% |
| Market | 59.5% | 24.3% | 16.2% |
| Final | 58.9% | 24.7% | 16.4% |
| Edge | -2.5% | +2.0% | +0.5% |
Why Alianza
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alianza and Fuerte San Francisco expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
Alianza and Fuerte San Francisco attack and defence ratings
Alianza
Fuerte San Francisco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alianza vs Fuerte San Francisco: result vs prediction
Alianza 2 – 2 Fuerte San Francisco
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alianza vs Fuerte San Francisco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza | 58.9% | 1.70 | -2.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.0% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza | 58.9% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 16.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.5% |
| No | 53.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza win | 32.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 43.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.7% |
| 1-1 | 12.4% | |
| 2-0 | 11.7% |
Alianza vs Fuerte San Francisco stats
Alianza and Fuerte San Francisco recent form
| Alianza |
WDWDLD |
| Fuerte San Francisco |
LLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alianza and Fuerte San Francisco going into this match
Alianza record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Fuerte San Francisco record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Alianza vs Fuerte San Francisco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Fuerte San Francisco | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Alianza | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-16 | Fuerte San Francisco | Alianza | Primera Division | 1-3 |
| 2025-09-14 | Alianza | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Alianza | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-15 | Fuerte San Francisco | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-23 | Fuerte San Francisco | Alianza | Primera Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-27 | Alianza | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-01 | Alianza | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-19 | Fuerte San Francisco | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alianza vs Fuerte San Francisco odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.5%, draw 24.3%, away 16.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 3.62 | 6.17 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.00 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 3.85 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.48 | 3.62 | 5.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57 | 3.67 | 5.30 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.50 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
21 snapshots recorded, from .