Primera Division
·
Full time
·Apertura - 9
Inca Aruba
vs
Atletico Balboa
1 – 0 Full time
| 90′ | J. Barahona |
Inca Aruba
25%
Draw
31%
Atletico Balboa
44%
Inca Aruba vs Atletico Balboa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Inca Aruba vs Atletico Balboa
| Probability | Inca Aruba | Draw | Atletico Balboa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.8% | 30.8% | 44.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.8% | 30.8% | 44.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Atletico Balboa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
66%
3+ goals
38%
No goals
12%
Inca Aruba and Atletico Balboa expected goals
Inca Aruba
0.91
Atletico Balboa
1.31
Total expected goals: 2.22
Inca Aruba and Atletico Balboa attack and defence ratings
Inca Aruba
Attack
0.65 -35%
Defence
1.23 +23%
Atletico Balboa
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Inca Aruba vs Atletico Balboa: result vs prediction
Inca Aruba 1 – 0 Atletico Balboa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Inca Aruba vs Atletico Balboa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Balboa | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inca Aruba | 24.8% |
| Draw | 30.8% | |
| Atletico Balboa | 44.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.0% |
| No | 55.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Balboa win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 12.9% | |
| 0-0 | 12.1% |
Inca Aruba vs Atletico Balboa stats
Inca Aruba and Atletico Balboa recent form
| Inca Aruba |
WDLDLL |
| Atletico Balboa |
LLWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Inca Aruba and Atletico Balboa going into this match
Inca Aruba record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Atletico Balboa record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.