Águila
vs
Inca Aruba
3 – 1 Full time
| 6′ | D. Gregori Diaz | ||
| 54′ | F. Andrada | ||
| 68′ | C. Garay | ||
| 88′ | C. Herrera |
Águila vs Inca Aruba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Águila vs Inca Aruba
| Probability | Águila | Draw | Inca Aruba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.1% | 28.8% | 21.1% |
| Market | 70.0% | 18.9% | 11.1% |
| Final | 65.0% | 21.4% | 13.6% |
| Edge | -19.9% | +9.9% | +10.0% |
Why Águila
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.88.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Águila and Inca Aruba expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.36
Águila and Inca Aruba attack and defence ratings
Águila
Inca Aruba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Águila vs Inca Aruba: result vs prediction
Águila 3 – 1 Inca Aruba
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Águila vs Inca Aruba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águila | 65.0% | 1.54 | -19.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águila | 65.0% |
| Draw | 21.4% | |
| Inca Aruba | 13.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.4% |
| No | 53.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Águila win | 26.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 49.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 12.8% | |
| 0-0 | 10.7% |
Águila vs Inca Aruba stats
Águila and Inca Aruba recent form
| Águila |
DDWLLL |
| Inca Aruba |
WWDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Águila and Inca Aruba going into this match
Águila record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Inca Aruba record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Águila vs Inca Aruba head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Águila vs Inca Aruba odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.0%, draw 18.9%, away 11.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.29 | 4.85 | 8.35 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 4.75 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 4.10 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.33 | 4.65 | 8.00 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 4.85 | 8.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30 | 4.89 | 8.62 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 4.50 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .