Primera Division
·
Full time
·Apertura - 11
Inca Aruba
vs
Fuerte San Francisco
2 – 1 Full time
| 31′ | R. Aparicio | ||
| 47′ | J. Urrutia | ||
| 68′ | V. Santana | ||
| 68′ | V. Santana | ||
| 85′ | I. Mancia |
Inca Aruba
38%
Draw
34%
Fuerte San Francisco
28%
Inca Aruba vs Fuerte San Francisco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Inca Aruba vs Fuerte San Francisco
| Probability | Inca Aruba | Draw | Fuerte San Francisco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.2% | 34.0% | 27.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.2% | 34.0% | 27.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Inca Aruba
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
84%
2+ goals
59%
3+ goals
30%
No goals
16%
Inca Aruba and Fuerte San Francisco expected goals
Inca Aruba
1.06
Fuerte San Francisco
0.87
Total expected goals: 1.93
Inca Aruba and Fuerte San Francisco attack and defence ratings
Inca Aruba
Attack
0.68 -32%
Defence
1.21 +21%
Fuerte San Francisco
Attack
0.56 -44%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Inca Aruba vs Fuerte San Francisco: result vs prediction
Inca Aruba 2 – 1 Fuerte San Francisco
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Inca Aruba vs Fuerte San Francisco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inca Aruba | 38.2% | 2.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inca Aruba | 38.2% |
| Draw | 34.0% | |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 27.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.3% |
| No | 60.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Inca Aruba win | 15.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 61.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.9% |
| 1-1 | 14.7% | |
| 1-0 | 14.1% |
Inca Aruba vs Fuerte San Francisco stats
Inca Aruba and Fuerte San Francisco recent form
| Inca Aruba |
LWWDLD |
| Fuerte San Francisco |
LLLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Inca Aruba and Fuerte San Francisco going into this match
Inca Aruba record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Fuerte San Francisco record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.