Alianza
vs
Inca Aruba
1 – 1 Full time
| 38′ | J. Portillo | ||
| 78′ | J. Delgado |
Alianza vs Inca Aruba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza vs Inca Aruba
| Probability | Alianza | Draw | Inca Aruba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.7% | 25.5% | 21.8% |
| Market | 65.0% | 21.2% | 13.8% |
| Final | 61.9% | 22.3% | 15.8% |
| Edge | -12.2% | +4.3% | +7.9% |
Why Alianza
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.08.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alianza and Inca Aruba expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Alianza and Inca Aruba attack and defence ratings
Alianza
Inca Aruba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alianza vs Inca Aruba: result vs prediction
Alianza 1 – 1 Inca Aruba
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alianza vs Inca Aruba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza | 61.9% | 1.62 | -12.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.3% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza | 61.9% |
| Draw | 22.3% | |
| Inca Aruba | 15.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% |
| No | 44.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza win | 30.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 47.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-0 | 9.1% |
Alianza vs Inca Aruba stats
Alianza and Inca Aruba recent form
| Alianza |
DWDWDL |
| Inca Aruba |
WLWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alianza and Inca Aruba going into this match
Alianza record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Inca Aruba record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Alianza vs Inca Aruba head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Inca Aruba | Alianza | Primera Division | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alianza vs Inca Aruba odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.0%, draw 21.2%, away 13.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 4.25 | 6.96 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 3.80 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 4.35 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 4.25 | 6.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 4.44 | 6.43 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.00 | 6.50 |