Firpo
vs
Águila
2 – 0 Full time
| 34′ | J. Jimenez | ||
| 73′ | J. Jimenez | ||
| 90′ | D. Guevara |
Firpo vs Águila overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Firpo vs Águila
| Probability | Firpo | Draw | Águila |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.3% | 29.5% | 22.2% |
| Market | 43.4% | 29.0% | 27.6% |
| Final | 44.6% | 29.1% | 26.3% |
| Edge | +4.9% | +0.5% | -5.5% |
Why Firpo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Firpo below the model: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Firpo and Águila expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.31
Firpo and Águila attack and defence ratings
Firpo
Águila
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Firpo vs Águila: result vs prediction
Firpo 2 – 0 Águila
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Firpo vs Águila markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Firpo | 44.6% | 2.24 | +4.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.7% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Firpo | 44.6% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Águila | 26.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.0% |
| No | 54.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Firpo win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 51.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
Firpo vs Águila stats
Firpo and Águila recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Firpo and Águila going into this match
Firpo record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Águila record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Firpo vs Águila head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Águila | Firpo | Primera Division | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Firpo | Águila | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Águila | Firpo | Primera Division | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Águila | Firpo | Primera Division | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Firpo | Águila | Primera Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Firpo | Águila | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Águila | Firpo | Primera Division | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-16 | Águila | Firpo | Primera Division | 3-3 |
| 2025-09-14 | Firpo | Águila | Primera Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-06 | Águila | Firpo | Primera Division | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Firpo vs Águila odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.4%, draw 29.0%, away 27.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.06 | 3.31 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.15 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.06 | 3.06 | 3.22 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 3.10 | 3.34 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .