Primera Division
·
Full time
·Apertura - 13
Inca Aruba
vs
Municipal Limeño
2 – 1 Full time
| 19′ | J. Barahona | ||
| 35′ | J. Urrutia | ||
| 43′ | J. C. Argueta |
Inca Aruba
26%
Draw
28%
Municipal Limeño
46%
Inca Aruba vs Municipal Limeño overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Inca Aruba vs Municipal Limeño
| Probability | Inca Aruba | Draw | Municipal Limeño |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.6% | 28.4% | 46.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 25.6% | 28.4% | 46.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Municipal Limeño
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.05.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
73%
3+ goals
47%
No goals
9%
Inca Aruba and Municipal Limeño expected goals
Inca Aruba
1.05
Municipal Limeño
1.50
Total expected goals: 2.55
Inca Aruba and Municipal Limeño attack and defence ratings
Inca Aruba
Attack
0.78 -22%
Defence
1.13 +13%
Municipal Limeño
Attack
1.04 +4%
Defence
1.01 +1%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Inca Aruba vs Municipal Limeño: result vs prediction
Inca Aruba 2 – 1 Municipal Limeño
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Inca Aruba vs Municipal Limeño markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal Limeño | 46.0% | 2.17 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inca Aruba | 25.6% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Municipal Limeño | 46.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% |
| No | 48.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal Limeño win | 23.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 53.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 10.4% | |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
Inca Aruba vs Municipal Limeño stats
Inca Aruba and Municipal Limeño recent form
| Inca Aruba |
DWLWWD |
| Municipal Limeño |
LLWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Inca Aruba and Municipal Limeño going into this match
Inca Aruba record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Municipal Limeño record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Inca Aruba vs Municipal Limeño head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
0Inca Aruba wins
0Draws
1Municipal Limeño wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Municipal Limeño | Inca Aruba | Primera Division | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.