Primera Division
·
Full time
·Apertura - 14
FAS
vs
Inca Aruba
1 – 1 Full time
| 37′ | E. Medrano | ||
| 68′ | J. Barahona |
FAS
65%
Draw
23%
Inca Aruba
13%
FAS vs Inca Aruba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FAS vs Inca Aruba
| Probability | FAS | Draw | Inca Aruba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.7% | 22.6% | 12.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 64.7% | 22.6% | 12.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FAS
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
77%
3+ goals
52%
No goals
7%
FAS and Inca Aruba expected goals
FAS
1.98
Inca Aruba
0.77
Total expected goals: 2.75
FAS and Inca Aruba attack and defence ratings
FAS
Attack
1.34 +34%
Defence
0.71 -29%
Inca Aruba
Attack
0.85 -15%
Defence
1.08 +8%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FAS vs Inca Aruba: result vs prediction
FAS 1 – 1 Inca Aruba
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
FAS vs Inca Aruba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FAS | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FAS win | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FAS | 64.7% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Inca Aruba | 12.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.2% |
| No | 52.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | FAS win | 40.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 35.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | |
| 1-1 | 10.8% |
FAS vs Inca Aruba stats
FAS and Inca Aruba recent form
| FAS |
WWDWWW |
| Inca Aruba |
WDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FAS and Inca Aruba going into this match
FAS record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
Inca Aruba record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
FAS vs Inca Aruba head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
1FAS wins
0Draws
0Inca Aruba wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Inca Aruba | FAS | Primera Division | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.