Primera Division
·
Full time
·Apertura - 8
Isidro Metapán
vs
Inca Aruba
0 – 1 Full time
| 45′ | M. Narvaez | ||
| 52′ | M. Narvaez |
Isidro Metapán
60%
Draw
25%
Inca Aruba
15%
Isidro Metapán vs Inca Aruba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Isidro Metapán vs Inca Aruba
| Probability | Isidro Metapán | Draw | Inca Aruba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.3% | 24.7% | 15.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 60.3% | 24.7% | 15.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Isidro Metapán
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
74%
3+ goals
48%
No goals
8%
Isidro Metapán and Inca Aruba expected goals
Isidro Metapán
1.80
Inca Aruba
0.80
Total expected goals: 2.60
Isidro Metapán and Inca Aruba attack and defence ratings
Isidro Metapán
Attack
0.96 -4%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Inca Aruba
Attack
0.62 -38%
Defence
1.39 +39%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Isidro Metapán vs Inca Aruba: result vs prediction
Isidro Metapán 0 – 1 Inca Aruba
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Isidro Metapán vs Inca Aruba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Isidro Metapán | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.8% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Isidro Metapán | 60.3% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Inca Aruba | 15.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.9% |
| No | 53.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Isidro Metapán win | 35.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 39.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.3% |
| 2-0 | 12.1% | |
| 1-1 | 11.7% |
Isidro Metapán vs Inca Aruba stats
Isidro Metapán and Inca Aruba recent form
| Isidro Metapán |
LWLWDW |
| Inca Aruba |
DLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Isidro Metapán and Inca Aruba going into this match
Isidro Metapán record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Inca Aruba record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.