Leyton Orient
vs
AFC Wimbledon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leyton Orient
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 0.63.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon
| Probability | Leyton Orient | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76.3% | 16.6% | 7.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 76.3% | 16.6% | 7.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Leyton Orient
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon match preview
Leyton Orient is favored to win against AFC Wimbledon with a probability of 76%. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-0, occurring 14% of the time, and suggests a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match. Leyton Orient's expected goals stand at 2.42, while AFC Wimbledon has a significantly lower expected goals figure of 0.63.
In terms of recent form, Leyton Orient has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while AFC Wimbledon has struggled, with six consecutive games without a win, including five losses. The head-to-head record over the last two encounters shows one win for each team, indicating a competitive matchup despite the current form disparity.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leyton Orient and AFC Wimbledon expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Leyton Orient and AFC Wimbledon attack and defence ratings
Leyton Orient
AFC Wimbledon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Leicester
- Burton Albion v Luton — match page
- Oxford United vs Wycombe — team news & stats
- Bradford vs Doncaster
- Plymouth v Peterborough — match page
- Cambridge United vs Stockport County — team news & stats
- Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons — match page
- Notts County vs Stevenage — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leyton Orient | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.0% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Leyton Orient win | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leyton Orient | 76.3% |
| Draw | 16.6% | |
| AFC Wimbledon | 7.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.4% |
| No | 56.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 23.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leyton Orient win | 54.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 23.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.8% |
| 3-0 | 11.2% | |
| 1-0 | 10.7% |
Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon stats
Leyton Orient and AFC Wimbledon recent form
| Leyton Orient |
WWLLWD |
| AFC Wimbledon |
LLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leyton Orient and AFC Wimbledon season so far
Leyton Orient record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
AFC Wimbledon record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | AFC Wimbledon | Leyton Orient | League One | 2-4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Leyton Orient | AFC Wimbledon | League One | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.