Colchester
vs
Port Vale
Garuda Lions Prediction: Colchester
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Colchester vs Port Vale overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Colchester vs Port Vale
| Probability | Colchester | Draw | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.3% | 29.3% | 16.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.3% | 29.3% | 16.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Colchester
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.68.
Best available price on the pick: 2.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Colchester vs Port Vale match preview
Colchester faces Port Vale in a League Two matchup with Colchester holding a 54% probability of winning, while Port Vale stands at 16%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of Colchester, which has a 16% chance of occurring. The expected goals for Colchester are 1.44, compared to Port Vale's 0.68, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
Recent form shows Colchester struggling with three draws and two losses in their last five matches, alongside one win. Port Vale has experienced a mix of results, with one win, two losses, and two draws in their last five games. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, but Colchester may have the upper hand based on their recent performances and expected goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Colchester and Port Vale expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.11
Colchester and Port Vale attack and defence ratings
Colchester
Port Vale
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Colchester vs Port Vale markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colchester | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | 2.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.8% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colchester | 54.3% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Port Vale | 16.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.7% |
| No | 61.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colchester win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.1% | |
| Loss | 45.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.2% |
| 0-0 | 13.2% | |
| 1-1 | 12.9% |
Colchester vs Port Vale stats
Colchester and Port Vale recent form
| Colchester |
DDDLLW |
| Port Vale |
LWLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Colchester and Port Vale season so far
Colchester record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
Port Vale record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colchester vs Port Vale head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Colchester vs Port Vale odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.3%, draw 27.5%, away 37.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.61 | 3.38 | 2.46 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Marathonbet | 2.58 | 3.24 | 2.56 |
| Pinnacle | 2.68 | 3.46 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .