Samtredia
vs
Shturmi
Garuda Lions Prediction: Samtredia
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.81.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Samtredia vs Shturmi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Samtredia vs Shturmi
| Probability | Samtredia | Draw | Shturmi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.3% | 24.1% | 14.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.3% | 24.1% | 14.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Samtredia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.81.
Samtredia vs Shturmi match preview
Samtredia faces Shturmi in the Erovnuli Liga 2 on October 31, 2026. According to our model, Samtredia has a 64% probability of winning, while Shturmi stands at 14%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 in favor of Samtredia, with an expected goals tally of 2.00 for Samtredia and 0.84 for Shturmi. Additionally, there is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Samtredia has recorded two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Shturmi has been more consistent with four wins, one draw, and one loss. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters shows each team with one win and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Samtredia and Shturmi expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
Samtredia and Shturmi attack and defence ratings
Samtredia
Shturmi
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Samtredia vs Shturmi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Samtredia | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.7% | 2.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Samtredia | 61.3% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Shturmi | 14.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.8% |
| No | 52.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Samtredia win | 37.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 38.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% | |
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
Samtredia vs Shturmi stats
Samtredia and Shturmi recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Samtredia and Shturmi season so far
Samtredia record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shturmi record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
Samtredia vs Shturmi head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Shturmi | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Samtredia | Shturmi | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Shturmi | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.