Gori
vs
Samtredia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Samtredia
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Gori vs Samtredia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gori vs Samtredia
| Probability | Gori | Draw | Samtredia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.0% | 24.0% | 52.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.0% | 24.0% | 52.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Samtredia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Gori vs Samtredia match preview
Gori faces Samtredia in the Erovnuli Liga 2 on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Gori has a 24% chance of winning, while Samtredia is favored at 52%, with a draw also at 24%. The expected goals for Gori stand at 1.28, compared to Samtredia's 1.95. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with a 10% probability.
Both teams exhibit solid attacking potential, with a 63% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring. Gori's recent form shows a mix of results with two wins, while Samtredia has won four of their last six matches. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters is balanced, with each team claiming one victory and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gori and Samtredia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Gori and Samtredia attack and defence ratings
Gori
Samtredia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gori vs Samtredia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Samtredia | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.0% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gori | 24.0% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Samtredia | 52.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% |
| No | 37.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Samtredia win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 48.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.5% |
Gori vs Samtredia stats
Gori and Samtredia recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gori and Samtredia season so far
Gori record
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 28 matches.
Samtredia record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gori vs Samtredia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Samtredia | Gori | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 1-0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Gori | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Samtredia | Gori | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.