Samtredia
vs
Aragvi Dusheti
0 – 1 Full time
| 23′ | E. OpongiI. Zaridze | ||
| 32′ | I. Zaridze | ||
| 35′ | V. Lazarevs | ||
| 62′ | S. SuleimaniT. Bzekalava | ||
| 63′ | T. OdikadzeT. Chikovani | ||
| 63′ | D. GvasaliaL. Gogitadze | ||
| 77′ | P. AntwiG. Pipia | ||
| 77′ | S. DvalishviliL. Kobakhidze | ||
| 78′ | G. KveladzeL. Patarkatsishvili | ||
| 84′ | T. Bzekalava | ||
| 85′ | B. LopezE. Barrios | ||
| 90′ | G. Mandzhgaladze | ||
| 90′ | D. Dobranskyi |
Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti
| Probability | Samtredia | Draw | Aragvi Dusheti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 85.9% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
| Market | 72.1% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
| Final | 75.5% | 15.6% | 8.8% |
| Edge | +13.8% | -8.2% | -5.6% |
Why Samtredia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.61 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Samtredia below the model: +13.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Samtredia and Aragvi Dusheti expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.46
Samtredia and Aragvi Dusheti attack and defence ratings
Samtredia
Aragvi Dusheti
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti: result vs prediction
Samtredia 0 – 1 Aragvi Dusheti
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Samtredia | 75.5% | 1.32 | +13.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.2% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Samtredia win | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Samtredia | 75.5% |
| Draw | 15.6% | |
| Aragvi Dusheti | 8.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Samtredia win | 71.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.5% | |
| Loss | 13.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 9.0% |
| 4-0 | 8.1% | |
| 3-1 | 7.8% |
Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti stats
Samtredia and Aragvi Dusheti recent form
| Samtredia |
WWLWWW |
| Aragvi Dusheti |
LWLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Samtredia and Aragvi Dusheti going into this match
Samtredia record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aragvi Dusheti record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Aragvi Dusheti | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 2-4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Samtredia | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Aragvi Dusheti | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 2-1 |
| 2024-07-21 | Aragvi Dusheti | Samtredia | David Kipiani Cup | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 72.1%, draw 17.7%, away 10.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.29 | 5.10 | 8.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 5.25 | 9.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .