Samtredia
vs
Sioni
Garuda Lions Prediction: Samtredia
2 – 0 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Samtredia vs Sioni overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Samtredia vs Sioni
| Probability | Samtredia | Draw | Sioni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% |
| Market | 52.1% | 24.4% | 23.5% |
| Final | 58.5% | 21.8% | 19.7% |
| Edge | +25.4% | -10.3% | -15.0% |
Why Samtredia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.00 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Samtredia below the model: +25.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Samtredia vs Sioni match preview
Samtredia faces Sioni in the Erovnuli Liga 2 on October 10, 2026. Samtredia comes into the match with strong recent form, winning their last six games, while Sioni has struggled, recording two losses and two draws in their last four matches. The model assigns a probability of 78% for a Samtredia victory, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 8%. Expected goals suggest Samtredia will dominate offensively with 3.00 expected goals compared to Sioni's 0.97.
In terms of scoring, there is a 76% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams to score has a probability of 60%. Historical head-to-head results favor Samtredia, who has won four of the last seven encounters against Sioni, which adds to their confidence heading into this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Samtredia and Sioni expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.97
Samtredia and Sioni attack and defence ratings
Samtredia
Sioni
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Samtredia vs Sioni markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Samtredia | 58.5% | 1.71 | +25.4% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Samtredia win | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Samtredia | 58.5% |
| Draw | 21.8% | |
| Sioni | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% |
| No | 40.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Samtredia win | 59.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 22.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 8.5% |
| 3-0 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Samtredia vs Sioni stats
Samtredia and Sioni recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Samtredia and Sioni season so far
Samtredia record
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sioni record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
Samtredia vs Sioni head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Sioni | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 3-2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Samtredia | Sioni | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Sioni | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Samtredia | Sioni | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Sioni | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 0-3 |
| 2025-05-15 | Samtredia | Sioni | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-29 | Sioni | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 0-1 |
| 2023-07-23 | Sioni | Samtredia | David Kipiani Cup | 4-1 |
| 2022-12-11 | Sioni | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga | 0-2 |
| 2022-12-07 | Samtredia | Sioni | Erovnuli Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Samtredia vs Sioni odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.1%, draw 24.4%, away 23.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.70 | 3.84 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.10 |