Aragvi Dusheti
vs
Gareji
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aragvi Dusheti
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.44.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aragvi Dusheti is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji
| Probability | Aragvi Dusheti | Draw | Gareji |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.7% | 25.0% | 30.3% |
| Market | 37.2% | 29.3% | 33.6% |
| Final | 39.0% | 28.2% | 32.8% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -1.1% | -0.8% |
Why Aragvi Dusheti
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.44.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.4% per unit staked (our 39.0% × 2.50 − 1).
Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji match preview
Aragvi Dusheti faces Gareji in an Erovnuli Liga 2 match with kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, Aragvi Dusheti has a 45% probability of winning, while Gareji stands at 30%, and a draw is at 25%. The expected goals for Aragvi Dusheti are 1.78, compared to Gareji's 1.44. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Aragvi Dusheti, occurring with a 9% probability.
Both teams show a tendency for high-scoring matches, with a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% probability that both teams will score. Recent form indicates that Aragvi Dusheti has won only 1 of their last 6 matches, while Gareji has a mixed record with 2 wins in their last 6. In their last three encounters, Gareji has won twice, while Aragvi Dusheti has secured one victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aragvi Dusheti and Gareji expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Aragvi Dusheti and Gareji attack and defence ratings
Aragvi Dusheti
Gareji
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aragvi Dusheti | 39.0% | 2.56 | +1.9% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aragvi Dusheti | 39.0% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Gareji | 32.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% |
| No | 35.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aragvi Dusheti win | 24.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 55.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji stats
Aragvi Dusheti and Gareji recent form
| Aragvi Dusheti |
WLWLLL |
| Gareji |
WLLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aragvi Dusheti and Gareji season so far
Aragvi Dusheti record
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gareji record
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Gareji | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 0-2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Aragvi Dusheti | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Gareji | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-05 | Aragvi Dusheti | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 1-3 |
| 2024-08-10 | Gareji | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-01 | Aragvi Dusheti | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 3-5 |
| 2024-03-07 | Gareji | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.2%, draw 29.3%, away 33.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.65 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.05 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.44 | 3.15 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .