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Greece Cup · Full time ·Greek Cup - 2

Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis

1 – 1 Full time

46′M. GarciaG. Gianniotas
46′S. PalaciosB. Garre
55′A. Papakanellos
60′B. KimpiokaJ. Bartolo
60′F. Macheda
63′R. MirL. Moron
63′B. SutaloFabiano
68′L. Moron
69′J. Petris
71′F. MachedaRicardinho
83′G. KotsirasJ. Chicco
83′A. PapakanellosN. Kaltsas
83′E. GonzalezG. Gitersos
86′K. CharoupasS. Papasarafianos
90′A. Mendez
90′E. Gonzalez
90′B. Garre

Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, TripoliReferee: A. Tzilos

Asteras Tripolis 33%
Draw 29%
Aris Thessalonikis 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAsteras TripolisDrawAris Thessalonikis
Model38.6%28.9%32.5%
Market31.6%28.6%39.8%
Final33.3%28.7%38.0%
Edge+7.0%+0.3%-7.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Aris Thessalonikis

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Asteras Tripol ↓ / Aris Thessalon → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 8% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 7% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis expected goals

Asteras Tripolis 1.36
Aris Thessalonikis 1.23

Total expected goals: 2.59

Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis attack and defence ratings

Asteras Tripolis

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Aris Thessalonikis

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis: result vs prediction

Asteras Tripolis 1 – 1 Aris Thessalonikis

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Greek Cup - 2 fixtures

Greece Cup

Before and after this match

Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Aris Thessalonikis 38.0% 2.63 -7.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.1% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.8% 1.86 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.3% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.5% 1.48 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Asteras Tripolis33.3%
Draw28.7%
Aris Thessalonikis38.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%
Both teams to scoreYes53.8%
No46.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.0%
12 (either side)71.3%
X2 (draw or away)66.7%
Handicap -1Aris Thessalonikis win14.3%
Push (exactly one goal)18.2%
Loss67.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.8%
1-09.0%
0-08.8%

Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis stats

Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis recent form

newest first
Asteras Tripolis WLLLWD
Aris Thessalonikis LWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Asteras Tripolis wins 2Draws 6Aris Thessalonikis wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-12-20Asteras TripolisAris ThessalonikisSuper League 10-1
2025-11-09Aris ThessalonikisAsteras TripolisSuper League 10-0
2025-05-10Aris ThessalonikisAsteras TripolisSuper League 14-2
2025-03-29Asteras TripolisAris ThessalonikisSuper League 10-2
2024-12-23Asteras TripolisAris ThessalonikisSuper League 12-1
2024-08-31Aris ThessalonikisAsteras TripolisSuper League 11-1
2024-01-03Asteras TripolisAris ThessalonikisSuper League 13-2
2023-09-03Aris ThessalonikisAsteras TripolisSuper League 13-2
2023-01-08Aris ThessalonikisAsteras TripolisSuper League 13-0
2022-09-11Asteras TripolisAris ThessalonikisSuper League 10-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.6%, draw 28.6%, away 39.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.92 3.20 2.30
1xBet 2.90 3.18 2.26
Bet365 2.90 3.50 2.35
BetVictor 2.90 3.30 2.30
Betano 3.05 3.30 2.40
Betfair 2.80 3.25 2.20
Dafabet 3.05 3.25 2.42
Marathonbet 2.84 3.18 2.24
Pinnacle 2.85 3.24 2.25
SBO 2.68 2.89 2.21
Superbet 2.95 3.15 2.40
Unibet 2.85 2.95 2.32
William Hill 2.75 3.10 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.90 ▼ -0.01
X 3.20 ▲ +0.10
2 2.30 ▼ -0.05

5 snapshots recorded, from .