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Super League 1 · Full time ·Matchday 3

AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis

5 – 0 Full time

11′B. Varga
27′Lovro Majer
40′Lazaros Rota
46′M. GarciaC. Kouame
46′G. GianniotasS. Palacios
62′B. Varga
64′T. Dele-BashiruM. Hongla
64′T. KadewereR. Mir
67′R. Marin
68′M. GacinovicA. Koita
68′L. JovicZini
75′A. Koita
80′B. VargaP. Mantalos
80′R. MarinK. Arriaga
83′L. MajerO. Zubkov
83′B. GarreO. Boussaid
90′Zini

Allwyn Arena, Nea FiladelfeiaReferee: Alexandros Tsakalidis

AEK Athens FC 64%
Draw 22%
Aris Thessalonikis 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 7
10 Shots on target 2
60 Possession % 40
2 Corners 2
16 Fouls 17
3 Offsides 0
2 Saves 5
473 Accurate passes 286

AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAEK Athens FCDrawAris Thessalonikis
Model51.1%28.4%20.5%
Market68.2%20.4%11.4%
Final63.9%22.4%13.7%
Edge-17.2%+8.1%+9.1%

Confidence: Low

Why AEK Athens FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.87.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AEK Athens FC ↓ / Aris Thessalon → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 7% 1 13% 13% 2 11% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 43%
No goals 10%

AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis expected goals

AEK Athens FC 1.51
Aris Thessalonikis 0.87

Total expected goals: 2.39

AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis attack and defence ratings

AEK Athens FC

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 0.56 -44%

Aris Thessalonikis

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis: result vs prediction

AEK Athens FC 5 – 0 Aris Thessalonikis

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Super League 1

Before and after this match

AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 AEK Athens FC 63.9% 1.56 -17.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.4% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score No 53.4% 1.87 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.3% 1.16 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.0% 2.04 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AEK Athens FC63.9%
Draw22.4%
Aris Thessalonikis13.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542.6%
Under 2.557.4%
Both teams to scoreYes46.6%
No53.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.3%
12 (either side)77.6%
X2 (draw or away)36.1%
Handicap -1AEK Athens FC win26.9%
Push (exactly one goal)24.2%
Loss49.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
1-012.7%
2-010.5%

AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis stats

AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis recent form

newest first
AEK Athens FC WDWWDD
Aris Thessalonikis WWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5AEK Athens FC wins 5Draws 0Aris Thessalonikis wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-11Aris ThessalonikisAEK Athens FCSuper League 11-1
2025-11-23AEK Athens FCAris ThessalonikisSuper League 11-0
2025-03-09Aris ThessalonikisAEK Athens FCSuper League 10-0
2024-12-03Aris ThessalonikisAEK Athens FCCup1-1
2024-11-30AEK Athens FCAris ThessalonikisSuper League 14-0
2024-10-30AEK Athens FCAris ThessalonikisCup1-0
2024-04-21Aris ThessalonikisAEK Athens FCSuper League 11-2
2024-04-14AEK Athens FCAris ThessalonikisSuper League 12-0
2024-03-03Aris ThessalonikisAEK Athens FCSuper League 13-3
2024-01-17Aris ThessalonikisAEK Athens FCCup1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 68.4%, draw 20.1%, away 11.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.37 4.65 8.15
Bet365 1.38 4.50 8.00
BetVictor 1.36 4.50 8.50
Betano 1.40 4.65 8.25
Betfair 1.33 4.75 7.50
Dafabet 1.36 4.80 8.00
Marathonbet 1.36 4.65 8.20
Pinnacle 1.37 4.98 8.71
Unibet 1.41 4.40 7.50
William Hill 1.36 4.40 7.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.37 ▼ -0.08
X 4.58 ▲ +0.28
2 8.18 ▲ +1.28

13 snapshots recorded, from .