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Super League 1 · Full time ·Matchday 4

PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis

2 – 0 Full time

3′Jonjoe Kenny
20′Christos Zafeiris
25′Tino Kadewere
32′Cherif Ndiaye
42′Andrija Živković
45′Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruManu García
61′Tino KadewereLoren Moron
64′Christos ZafeirisKristijan Jakić
73′Taison Barcellos FredaMady Camara
73′Dimitrios PelkasDimitrios Chatsidis
77′Cherif Ndiaye
78′Noah FadigaJeremy Petris
78′Giannis GianniotasChristian Kouamé
85′Benjamin GarréSebastián Palacios
85′Cherif NdiayeAnestis Mythou
85′Andrija ŽivkovićTaha Ali

Toumba Stadium, ThessalonikiReferee: Andrea Colombo

PAOK 55%
Draw 24%
Aris Thessalonikis 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 15
5 Shots on target 3
46 Possession % 54
3 Corners 7
15 Fouls 15
3 Saves 4
275 Accurate passes 335

PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis overview

Garuda Lions analysis: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPAOKDrawAris Thessalonikis
Model45.2%24.4%30.4%
Market58.3%24.0%17.7%
Final55.0%24.1%20.9%
Edge-13.0%+0.4%+12.7%

Confidence: Low

Why PAOK

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.50.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

PAOK ↓ / Aris Thessalon → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 7% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 4%

PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis expected goals

PAOK 1.86
Aris Thessalonikis 1.50

Total expected goals: 3.35

PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis attack and defence ratings

PAOK

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.10 +10%

Aris Thessalonikis

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis: result vs prediction

PAOK 2 – 0 Aris Thessalonikis

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Super League 1

Before and after this match

PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 PAOK 55.0% 1.82 -13.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.2% 1.53 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.5% 1.50 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.1% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.6% 1.83 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2PAOK55.0%
Draw24.1%
Aris Thessalonikis20.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.2%
Under 2.534.8%
Both teams to scoreYes66.5%
No33.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.1%
12 (either side)75.9%
X2 (draw or away)45.0%
Handicap -1PAOK win25.5%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss54.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.7%
2-19.0%
1-27.3%

PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis stats

PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis recent form

newest first
PAOK LDWLWD
Aris Thessalonikis DLWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3PAOK wins 4Draws 3Aris Thessalonikis wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-08Aris ThessalonikisPAOKSuper League 10-0
2025-12-07PAOKAris ThessalonikisSuper League 13-1
2025-12-03Aris ThessalonikisPAOKGreece Cup1-1
2025-01-19Aris ThessalonikisPAOKSuper League 10-0
2024-09-29PAOKAris ThessalonikisSuper League 10-1
2024-05-19Aris ThessalonikisPAOKSuper League 11-2
2024-03-10PAOKAris ThessalonikisSuper League 10-1
2024-01-07Aris ThessalonikisPAOKSuper League 12-1
2023-09-17PAOKAris ThessalonikisSuper League 10-0
2023-04-30PAOKAris ThessalonikisSuper League 13-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.7%, draw 23.9%, away 17.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.43 4.20 6.60
1xBet 1.62 3.88 5.21
888Sport 1.50 4.00 5.50
Bet365 1.60 4.10 5.25
BetVictor 1.60 3.75 5.50
Betano 1.65 4.00 5.20
Betfair 1.57 3.80 5.50
Dafabet 1.50 4.50 6.20
Marathonbet 1.60 3.88 5.30
Pinnacle 1.64 4.10 5.27
SBO 1.41 3.85 5.51
William Hill 1.62 3.80 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.60 ▼ -0.07
X 3.88 ▲ +0.08
2 5.27 ▲ +0.07

29 snapshots recorded, from .