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Super League 1 · Full time ·Matchday 4

Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC

1 – 1 Full time

4′Lovro Majer
21′Dimitrios Laskaris
31′Julián Bartolo
52′Kervin ArriagaBarnabás Varga
52′Mijat GaćinovićAboubakary Koita
54′Julián Bartolo
74′Federico MachedaRicardo Viana Filho
74′Dimitrios KourbelisGiannis Bouzoukis
81′Kalvin KetuAntonis Papakanellos
88′Ambrósini António Cabaça SalvadorPetros Mantalos
90′Giannis Kotsiras
90′Julián BartoloAlexandros Tereziou

Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, TripolisReferee: Anastasios Papapetrou

Asteras Tripolis 12%
Draw 23%
AEK Athens FC 65%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 21
5 Shots on target 3
37 Possession % 63
8 Corners 5
18 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 2
2 Saves 4
215 Accurate passes 413

Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAsteras TripolisDrawAEK Athens FC
Model15.0%29.5%55.5%
Market10.9%20.7%68.4%
Final12.0%22.9%65.2%
Edge+4.1%+8.8%-12.9%

Confidence: Low

Why AEK Athens FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.62.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Asteras Tripol ↓ / AEK Athens FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 17% 13% 1 13% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 14%

Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC expected goals

Asteras Tripolis 0.62
AEK Athens FC 1.42

Total expected goals: 2.04

Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC attack and defence ratings

Asteras Tripolis

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.86 -14%

AEK Athens FC

Attack 1.46 +46%
Defence 0.47 -53%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC: result vs prediction

Asteras Tripolis 1 – 1 AEK Athens FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Super League 1

Before and after this match

Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 AEK Athens FC 65.2% 1.53 -12.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 66.6% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score No 63.9% 1.57 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 88.0% 1.14 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.7% 2.24 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Asteras Tripolis12.0%
Draw22.9%
AEK Athens FC65.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533.4%
Under 2.566.6%
Both teams to scoreYes36.1%
No63.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)34.8%
12 (either side)77.1%
X2 (draw or away)88.0%
Handicap -1AEK Athens FC win28.6%
Push (exactly one goal)26.7%
Loss44.7%
Correct score (top 3)0-117.4%
0-014.2%
0-213.2%

Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC stats

Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC recent form

newest first
Asteras Tripolis DWLLLW
AEK Athens FC WWWDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0Asteras Tripolis wins 2Draws 8AEK Athens FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-24Asteras TripolisAEK Athens FCSuper League 10-1
2025-08-31AEK Athens FCAsteras TripolisSuper League 11-0
2025-02-23Asteras TripolisAEK Athens FCSuper League 10-3
2024-11-09AEK Athens FCAsteras TripolisSuper League 13-0
2024-02-04AEK Athens FCAsteras TripolisSuper League 14-2
2023-10-22Asteras TripolisAEK Athens FCSuper League 10-3
2023-02-25AEK Athens FCAsteras TripolisSuper League 12-0
2022-11-06Asteras TripolisAEK Athens FCSuper League 11-1
2022-03-06AEK Athens FCAsteras TripolisSuper League 12-1
2021-12-11Asteras TripolisAEK Athens FCSuper League 10-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 11.1%, draw 20.7%, away 68.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 8.50 4.20 1.37
1xBet 8.35 4.70 1.36
888Sport 7.50 4.20 1.40
Bet365 8.50 4.33 1.40
BetVictor 8.50 4.50 1.36
Betano 8.50 4.45 1.42
Betfair 8.50 4.50 1.33
Dafabet 8.40 4.50 1.41
Marathonbet 8.40 4.70 1.35
Pinnacle 9.14 4.88 1.37
SBO 6.57 3.97 1.34
Unibet 7.00 4.50 1.42
William Hill 8.00 4.60 1.35

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 8.50 ▲ +1.26
X 4.50 ▲ +0.50
2 1.36 ▼ -0.04

17 snapshots recorded, from .