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Honduras Liga Nacional · Full time ·Apertura - 4

Atletico Independiente vs Génesis

1 – 1 Full time

Estadio Carlos Miranda, Comayagua

Atletico Independiente 30%
Draw 31%
Génesis 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Atletico Independiente vs Génesis overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Independiente vs Génesis

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico IndependienteDrawGénesis
Model30.4%31.4%38.2%
Market———
Final30.4%31.4%38.2%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Génesis

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Indep ↓ / Génesis → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 11% 8% 1 10% 15% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Atletico Independiente and Génesis expected goals

Atletico Independiente 1.04
Génesis 1.19

Total expected goals: 2.23

Atletico Independiente and Génesis attack and defence ratings

Atletico Independiente

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Génesis

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Independiente vs Génesis: result vs prediction

Atletico Independiente 1 – 1 Génesis

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Apertura - 4 fixtures

Honduras Liga Nacional

Before and after this match

Atletico Independiente vs Génesis markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Génesis 38.2% 2.62 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 61.4% 1.63 — —
Both teams to score No 53.6% 1.86 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 69.6% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.8% 1.62 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Independiente30.4%
Draw31.4%
Génesis38.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538.6%
Under 2.561.4%
Both teams to scoreYes46.4%
No53.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.8%
12 (either side)68.6%
X2 (draw or away)69.6%
Handicap -1Génesis win17.0%
Push (exactly one goal)21.2%
Loss61.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.6%
0-012.0%
0-111.5%

Atletico Independiente vs Génesis stats

Atletico Independiente and Génesis recent form

newest first
Atletico Independiente DWL
Génesis WLWLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Atletico Independiente and Génesis going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Independiente record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Génesis record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Atletico Independiente vs Génesis head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Atletico Independiente vs Génesis odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.