Estrella Roja
vs
Juticalpa
5 – 2 Full time
Estrella Roja vs Juticalpa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estrella Roja vs Juticalpa
| Probability | Estrella Roja | Draw | Juticalpa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.6% | 22.4% | 12.1% |
| Market | 55.9% | 24.6% | 19.5% |
| Final | 58.3% | 24.0% | 17.7% |
| Edge | +9.7% | -2.2% | -7.5% |
Why Estrella Roja
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 0.74.
- The market prices Estrella Roja below the model: +9.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estrella Roja and Juticalpa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Estrella Roja and Juticalpa attack and defence ratings
Estrella Roja
Juticalpa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Estrella Roja vs Juticalpa: result vs prediction
Estrella Roja 5 – 2 Juticalpa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estrella Roja vs Juticalpa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrella Roja | 58.3% | 1.72 | +9.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.3% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Estrella Roja win | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrella Roja | 58.3% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Juticalpa | 17.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.9% |
| No | 54.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Estrella Roja win | 41.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 34.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 12.1% | |
| 1-1 | 10.6% |
Estrella Roja vs Juticalpa stats
Estrella Roja and Juticalpa recent form
| Estrella Roja |
DWL |
| Juticalpa |
LLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.
Estrella Roja and Juticalpa going into this match
Estrella Roja record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Juticalpa record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Estrella Roja vs Juticalpa head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Estrella Roja vs Juticalpa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.7%, draw 24.7%, away 19.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.65 |
| 1xBet | 1.70 | 3.68 | 4.16 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 3.68 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 3.61 | 4.63 |
| Superbet | 1.64 | 3.70 | 4.65 |
| Unibet | 1.78 | 3.45 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .