Atletico Independiente
vs
Real Espana
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Espana
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.87.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Real Espana is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atletico Independiente vs Real Espana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Independiente vs Real Espana
| Probability | Atletico Independiente | Draw | Real Espana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.1% | 25.3% | 57.5% |
| Market | 15.9% | 23.6% | 60.5% |
| Final | 16.2% | 24.0% | 59.8% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +0.4% | -0.7% |
Why Real Espana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.1% per unit staked (our 59.8% × 1.52 − 1).
Atletico Independiente vs Real Espana match preview
Atletico Independiente faces Real Espana in their upcoming match, with the model indicating a 17% chance of a home win, a 25% probability of a draw, and a 58% likelihood of an away victory. The expected goals suggest Atletico Independiente will score 0.87, while Real Espana is projected to net 1.77 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability.
In terms of recent form, Atletico Independiente has struggled, recording five games without a win (D-L-D-L-D-L), while Real Espana has shown better performance, with two wins in their last three matches (D-W-W-L-W-W). Both teams have a 49% chance of scoring, and the model also indicates a 49% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Independiente and Real Espana expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Atletico Independiente and Real Espana attack and defence ratings
Atletico Independiente
Real Espana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Independiente vs Real Espana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Espana | 59.8% | 1.67 | -0.7% | 1.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.8% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.5% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Independiente | 16.2% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Real Espana | 59.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.4% |
| No | 50.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 40.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Espana win | 33.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 42.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 0-1 | 11.5% | |
| 0-2 | 11.2% |
Atletico Independiente vs Real Espana stats
Atletico Independiente and Real Espana recent form
| Atletico Independiente |
DLDLDL |
| Real Espana |
DWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Independiente and Real Espana season so far
Atletico Independiente record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Espana record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Independiente vs Real Espana head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Real Espana | Atletico Independiente | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Independiente vs Real Espana odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.9%, draw 23.6%, away 60.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.72 | 3.74 | 1.50 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 3.90 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 5.70 | 3.80 | 1.50 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.10 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 5.80 | 4.00 | 1.52 |
| Marathonbet | 5.45 | 3.74 | 1.49 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .